© Fotolia / sakkmesterkeБизнесвумен builds a tower of coins© Fotolia / sakkmesterke
Inflation in Russia in annual terms in April reached 4.1%, being just steps from the planned Central Bank target of 4%. In comparison with the March 0.1% in April, turnover rose 0.3%.
The Central Bank explained: it’s all in the expected slight increase in food inflation associated with the depletion of stocks of fruits and vegetables. The regulator does not exclude that in coming months the annual growth rate of food prices to increase, but he noted that the inflation acceleration is expected.
Not a long-term factor
«The exhaustion of stocks of fruits and vegetables occurred because of grocery sanctions — previously these reserves are quickly replenished with imported vegetables and fruits. But by the middle of summer everything will return to normal — will be the Russian greenhouse vegetables, seasonal fruits. Stocks will bounce back, and prices for these and other categories of goods will begin to decline, — said the Deputy Director of analytical Department of «Alpari» Anna Kokoreva.At the same time, in the middle of 2016, the economists one of the largest European banks, BNP Paribas has recognised that the growth of the national currency — the merit not only grown-up in oil prices but also tight monetary policy of the Russian Central Bank. The high key interest rate decreases the quantity of money in circulation, which puts pressure on inflation, but the flip side of process — the brakes on the economy.
To drop a course
In 2016, the Russian economy recovering from the shock, the Central Bank responded twice — in June and September, both times lowering the rate by 0.5 percentage points.
Earlier this year, analysts admitted that Central Bank copes with the decrease of inflationary pressure on the Russians by February inflation slowed down to 4.6%. In March, the Central Bank cut the key rate by 0.25 percentage points to 9.75%.© Fotolia / psdesign1Импульс© Fotolia / psdesign1Импульс
The latest rate cuts he made on April 28, changing the rate by 0.5 percentage point, to 9.25%.
In early March, the head of monetary policy Department, Bank of Russia Igor Dmitriev said that the Bank was ready to lower the rate to 6.5%, but this decline will happen gradually — inflation must be fixed at 4%. However, the Bank of Russia said that in 2018, the rate of reduction of the key rate will be lower.
«You have to remember that the Central Bank affects inflation with a time lag, that is our monetary policy now affects the inflation rate in about six months or more, not in the coming months», — explained the first Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Ksenia Yudaeva.
June instead of December
The consequences of this time lag are already being felt. According to Ministry estimates, given the current dynamics of the coveted 4% will be reached already in may, and by year-end and did have the chance to reach 3.8%.
Optimistic expectations and analysts confirm.
«Designated record we will likely reach in may-June, and then the inflation rate will vary within 3.5-4%», — says Kokoreva.
The output of the Russian economy from a two-year recession, acknowledged on may 19 the experts of the International monetary Fund. The IMF noted that inflation continues to decline amid strengthening of the ruble and the still weak consumer demand. According to experts of Fund, inflation would fall well below the Bank of Russia target of 4 percent this year and next will remain close to this level.© Fotolia / Sergey NivensГрафик© Fotolia / Sergey NivensГрафик
However, the IMF noted: the current progress is good though, but the regulator should develop a system of inflation targeting in the medium term.
«Until now, to cope with the task of the Central Bank helped macroeconomic factors — primarily the decline in consumer activity, which almost stopped,» — says the chief analyst of Binbank, Natalia Shilova.
In General, experts believe that in subsequent years as the recovery in economic activity — to keep inflation at a predetermined level, the Central Bank may be more difficult.