The ruble has updated multi-month lows

© Fotolia / KkolosovДеньги. Archival photoThe ruble has updated multi-month lows© Fotolia / Kkolosov

The ruble on Tuesday afternoon, dropping against the dollar and Euro amid falling oil market to the lows in the fall.

The level of 60 rubles per dollar will be the first obstacle for the further growth of American currency, oil prices continue to set the tone for the dynamics of the ruble, according to respondents RIA Novosti experts.

The dollar calculations «tomorrow» at 14.27 GMT grew by 75 cents, to 59.19 ruble, Euro — by 80 cents, to 65,98 of the ruble. Earlier Tuesday, the U.S. currency rose to 59,255 ruble, for the first time since March, the European – to 66,1375 of the ruble for the first time since Dec.

The ruble under pressure

The ruble day declined against the dollar and the Euro, failing to continue the upward correction, indicated in early trading this morning.

The reason for the decline was the publication of information that the Federal Treasury of the Russian Federation intends in 2017 to buy for current needs budget currency at 2-3 billion dollars, acquiring on a monthly basis at 200-300 million dollars. These purchases are in addition to purchases of foreign currency Ministry of Finance to the reserves, experts explain.

The oil price also put pressure on the ruble during the day. The price of Brent crude failed to hold at 47 dollars per barrel and fell below $ 46 for the first time in the fall.

Investors remain focused on the constant signs of growth in the supply of «black gold» that undermine the efforts of OPEC countries and other States (OPEC+) to implement the agreement on the reduction of oil production.

In the end, the dollar and the Euro day grew to 1.2-1.3% against the ruble in the area of the highs from March and December 2016, respectively. Ruble price of oil slipped to around 2.7 thousand roubles per barrel.

The dollar can go higher than 60 rubles

The basic tone of the ruble sets the oil on the trigger, carry traders to a change of strategy, says Evgeny Koshelev of ROSBANK.

«The ruble has long been overrated (primarily oil – ed.). However, the CBR gave signal on softening its policy that not in favor of the rouble carry trade. So I decided to go into the currency, and then to re-enter the ruble at other levels,» he says.

«Apparently, at the rate of 60 rubles to the dollar should once again think about buying rubles. However, with a further fall of oil towards $ 40 a barrel will be the range 60-61 rubles to the dollar,» added Koshelev.

Risks of new sanctions became the reason for intensification of the output of the carry-trader from ruble assets, primarily Federal loan bonds, says Yegor Susin from Gazprombank. «The ruble is overvalued (primarily oil – ed.) and the rise of the dollar in the range of 60 to 62 of the ruble may have to adjust it», — the expert believes.

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