Stratfor, told about the political success of Russia in Eurasia

Stratfor рассказал о политических успехах России в Евразии

Gradually changing the political mood in the United States and the European Union can lead to the fact that Moscow will increase its influence on former Soviet republics and the countries “on the periphery of Russia” will overestimate their current foreign policies, says the us private intelligence think tank Stratfor.

It seems that now – three years after the beginning of the crisis in the economy and the deterioration in relations with the West, Russia improve. Brexit this summer revealed deep discord in European Union and gave hope that “breakaway” members of the EU will block the extension of sanctions. And while all countries have voted in favour of restrictive measures, the upcoming elections in several European countries can undermine EU unity on this issue. Meanwhile, the victory of Donald trump in US elections opened opportunities to establish relations with Moscow and perhaps the lifting of sanctions, the article says.

Many of the reasons for “failures” of Moscow date back to 2014, when the Crimea became part of Russia in the East Ukraine conflict began, the West has imposed sanctions, and oil prices fell by half. A success achieved by Russia in relations with the former Soviet republics over the past decade, came to naught, and the Russian economy began to “recession”. At the same time, such countries as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia have worked hard to improve ties with the European Union and NATO, Stratfor analysts say.

However, against the background of current developments in the EU and USA, the former Soviet republics is likely to overestimate its policy. So, the presidential elections in Moldova, won by the Pro-Russian candidate, Igor Dodon, has shown that the interest of the country to rapprochement with the European Union weakens. Although it is unlikely that the new President will be able to reverse the country “all sail” to the Alliance with Moscow, he will try to strengthen economic and political ties with Russia. Georgia starts to soften stance on Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Moreover, Tbilisi after the parliamentary elections are likely to strengthen economic cooperation with Moscow, analysts say.

Stratfor рассказал о политических успехах России в Евразии
Igor Dodon

As for Ukraine, that Kiev can no longer count on a “continuous” economic and political support from the West. Of course, it is unlikely that Ukraine can choose “Pro-Russian leader” against the background of the conflict in the Donbass, but changing political conditions in the European Union and the United States can force the Ukrainian government to soften its position on the Minsk agreements and to elect a “more conciliatory approach” to negotiations with Russia on the situation in the Donbass. Parallel Kiev may try to strengthen the “military integration” with Poland and Baltic States if NATO members (especially the U.S.) will reduce their presence in Central and Eastern Europe, said the material.

Stratfor рассказал о политических успехах России в Евразии
The President Of Georgia Giorgi Margvelashvili

It is possible that Russia’s allies in the former Soviet Union will also review its foreign policy. According to analysts, in recent years Belarus is “warmer” in its attitude to the European Union, although this can now change. Another ally of Russia – Armenia – questioned “unwavering loyalty” to Moscow after the escalation of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh in the spring of this year. However, if the EU and US will create for Moscow “fewer challenges”, she will have more opportunities to become the main arbiter in the dispute between Yerevan and Baku, the article says.

Even countries that remained neutral in the confrontation between Russia and the West can change its position. So, Moscow has recently held talks with Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan on cooperation in the military sphere. Also, Russia could become more active in the direction of Eurasian integration, EurAsEC, and CSTO, especially in light of the fact that the differences in the European Union hamper the development of the program “Eastern partnership”, analysts say.

Stratfor рассказал о политических успехах России в Евразии
The firing of MANPADS “Igla” from the armored car “Tiger”. Exercises of the CSTO “Frontier-2016”

Thus, next year Russia has a chance to strengthen the influence in many post-Soviet countries, although it may be much less strong than before 2010. Even if the West would weaken sanctions against Russia, the US and NATO are unlikely to stop supporting allies in the “Russian province”. However, the current political transformations in Europe and America can give Moscow much more space in order to recover positions in Eurasia, writes Stratfor.