Oil fire: analysts promised $ 60 per barrel at the end of the year

© Fotolia / maghakia oil. Archival photoOil fire: analysts promised $ 60 per barrel at the end of the year© Fotolia / marrakeshh

MOSCOW, may 16 — RIA Novosti, Natalia Dembinski. The price of oil reached 52 dollars per barrel. After Russia and Saudi Arabia, reported the willingness to extend the Vienna Convention on the reduction of oil production until the end of March 2018, has made a positive Venezuela. The Ministry of petroleum and mining industry stated that it supported the proposal to renew the agreement signed in December 2016 24 countries in nine months.

Russia and Saudi Arabia expect that the extension of the global Pact will support other manufacturers. Moreover, Minister of energy Alexander Novak did not rule out that the agreement to reduce oil production (the current date in a transaction involving 22 countries, including Russia and 11 members of OPEC) will be joined by three more–five States — all known exporters.

Prolonged effect

Since the end of last year, a powerful continuous support to the black gold had an agreement by OPEC and independent producers to reduce oil production to clear the excess supply from the market. The total amount of reducing production to 1.8 million barrels per day, of which 300 thousand are in Russia.

The agreement is valid until 30 June, and in early spring a number of experts said that the market has a balance of supply and demand, and therefore the need for extension no.

There are fears

Experts also point to the fact that now there were issues and by the manufacturers.

Official statistics say about production cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia, but at the same time, these countries are increasing their exports.

«Therefore, doubt the market will continue, and the fact of the extension of the agreement will not have any long-term effect. More important for market participants to obtain a significant statistical confirmation of the decline in commercial stocks in the world,» — said Kochetkov.

In «Alpari», however, I see no reason to implement very much of the shock scenarios.

«In the case of denial of renewal expect the fall — somewhere up to $ 45 per barrel, and perhaps lower. But with this collapse of the negotiation progress will resume, and consensus postponed: nobody wants to lose profit from rising oil prices», — said Natalya Milchakova, Director of the analytical Department of «Alpari».

According to the forecast Milchakova, within two to three months following the extension of agreement rates can be secured in the area of 58-60 per barrel.

She explained that experts tend to consider as resistance level, but do not rule out that he will be broken, and possible further growth. «It will depend on the amounts of black gold, which by that time will be on the market,» she notes.

Factor slate

The main intrigue, analysts warn, will prove how possible the «oil of romance» will prevent the Americans — in particular, shale producers. The more expensive the oil, the stronger they aktiviziruyutsya.

Slow China

In the long term, oil prices will not support agreement on limiting production and the rate of growth of the world economy, analysts warn. In particular, oil traders are very concerned about the problem of slow growth of the economies of the US and China.

Strong slowdown will negatively affect oil prices. In October-November, China will host the XIX Congress of the CPC, which will determine future economic policy. If you take the top supporters of reducing government programs to build infrastructure, the price of oil may decline below $ 45 per barrel in «IC Zerich capital Management».


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