Russian banks promise a mortgage rate of 6-7% only in two or three years

© RIA Novosti / Igor Taraborrelli in photobacteria loans in the new mortgage centre in Kaliningrad. Archival photoRussian banks promise a mortgage rate of 6-7% only in two or three years© RIA Novosti / Igor Taraborrelli the image Bank

Policy of Bank of Russia contributes to the reduction of interest rates in the mortgage market, but record-low mortgage rates of 6-7% annual cost to wait only in the future two to three years, believe polled by RIA Novosti of the credit institution. The banking market can not in the short term decrease your bids by a few percentage points, as this will lead to a negative margin, they explain.

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said Tuesday that the macroeconomic conditions in Russia in General is ripe for that mortgage rates decreased to 6-7% per annum.

According to the Bank, mortgage rates Russian banks in the first quarter of 2017, the average was 11.8%, down by 0.67 percentage points compared with the previous year.

«The market is ripe for banks to have embarked on lowering interest rates. However, the banking market will not be able in a short period to reduce the rate on the loan by several percentage points, as it will lead to the imbalance of assets and liabilities. Cheap liabilities have been gradually replaced by more expensive funds attracted from the market, making financial-credit organizations gradually lowers the rate», — commented the Director of the Department of lending and insurance products, «Absolut Bank» Anton Pavlov.

Not so fast

Demand for mortgages at the rate for the product in 6-7% will surely rise. The market will be the borrowers for which higher interest rates were unaffordable, said the head of mass market and credit products Raiffeisenbank Andrey Morozov.

However, the General market level of mortgage rates of 6-7% this year is not worth waiting, with one accord, say representatives of banks.

«Under the most favorable economic scenario and the ongoing trend in the reduction of the key rate can approach the upper limit of this level until the end of 2018,» — says Morozov.

In the Bank predict that at the end of 2017, and in 2018 the mortgage rates on the market would decrease by about 1-2 percentage points.

«Most likely, this year we will see in the market a definite bet. The rate of 6-7% is a prospect in two or three years», — consider in «Absolut Bank».

General forecast until the end of 2017 and in 2018, promises to lower mortgage rates approximately the market average by 1-2 percentage points, say the PSB.

In the mortgage Bank «DeltaCredit» in turn, believe that with inflation at 3-4% and the growth of the economy average mortgage rate to 2019-2020 years could reach 8-9% and in the absence of economic growth of 9.5% per annum.

The General trend on decrease in rates is justified, according to bankers. The positive dynamics of mortgage lending due not only to the abolition of state support, but the current cost of funding of banks and the expected decline in inflation, and noted, in particular, PSB.

«You also need to consider demographic factors and the financial literacy of the population – we can already observe the emergence of a new generation of creditworthy borrowers. It is predicted that real disposable incomes will start to move up in 2017 after three years of decline,» — said the head of Department of mortgage products and refinancing PSB Elena Nazarenko.

Plans of the banks

All banks have assured that they intend to monitor the situation on the market and reduce mortgage rates.

«With regard to future changes in rates in the Bank, while maintaining the current trend to reduce funding costs and to lower the key rate our rates also will be reduced,» — said, in particular, Deputy head of unit «Retail business» Bank Oleg Korkin.

According to the Bank, the current volume of its mortgage portfolio is 44 billion rubles. In 2017 the mortgage portfolio of Bank Vozrozhdenie will grow by no less than 30%, which corresponds to the dynamics of growth in 2016, said Korkin.

«Absolut Bank» also intends to adjust the rate on the mortgage, if there are conditions. «For this it is important that the economic situation remained stable, the Central Bank continued its policy of reduction of the key rate, which in particular, will help to reduce the cost of formation for market participants. Another important factor is the development of infrastructure projects, liaise with agencies with the aim of reducing transaction costs and a risk component,» he listed Pavlov.

Since the beginning of the year the Bank has three times reduced the rate on the mortgage. Currently, the minimum rate for a standard lending programs is 10.25% per annum, and the partnership programs — 7.7% per annum in rubles.

The decrease rates without subsidies to 6-7% would mean that the Bank is operating with negative margins as the cost of funds for market participants is now higher. In addition, the Bank spends money on maintaining infrastructure, transaction processing, etc. that also need to lay in the cost of the product, said Pavlov.

The current mortgage portfolio «the absolute of Bank» is 65.1 billion rubles, and by the end of the year will overcome the mark of 80 billion rubles is expected in the credit institution.

PSB in 2016 has increased the volume of mortgage loans 4.3% in annual terms, and the mortgage portfolio of the Bank grew last year by 39%. The average mortgage loan amount in the Bank for March of 2017 was 1.78 million rubles.

«The main criteria and trends in 2017 in the mortgage business are two elements: tough competition on the rates — customers are accustomed to low interest rates during the period of government subsidies, and the second element is the simplification of the process: the minimum package of documents, remote and electronic channels for the issuance and registration of transactions,» — said Nazarenko.

«We want to be «in the market» and in the future may consider lowering rates, but the preconditions for a more significant reduction yet,» — said in turn the head of the marketing Department of the Bank «DeltaCredit» Alex Tartyshov.

As of may 1, the mortgage portfolio of the Bank «DeltaCredit» – 140,1 billion. In Bank predict that at the end of the year it will grow by 23% to of 172.5 billion rubles.