The analyst identified four scenarios for the development of the crisis over Qatar

© RIA Novosti / Abdulkader to Hadjerat in fotobanka, Qatar. Archival photoThe analyst identified four scenarios for the development of the crisis over Qatar© RIA Novosti / Abdulkader to Harperite the image Bank

There are four basic scenarios for the development of a crisis in relations between Qatar and other Arab countries, including «soft change of power in the Emirate» and «violent confrontation with the hard sides consequences,» says well-known Russian expert on the Middle East, scientific Director of the Institute of Oriental studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, academician of the RAS, Vitaly Naumkin. He described them in his article for the Russian international Affairs Council.

«I still think that the parties fail to agree, as no one is interested in exacerbating the conflict, which involved the state, holding the main cards in the global oil and gas market,» writes Naumkin. He recalled that Qatar also has large reserves of helium entering the four world leaders in volumes of its proven reserves.

«From Qatar’s Arab neighbors require not so much the termination of funding of recognized terrorist Islamist groups (and their support comes from other Arab States) as a waiver of rapprochement with Iran, the expulsion from the country, «Muslim Brothers» and leaders of Hamas, the closure of such financed media as the «al Jazeera», «al-Quds al-Arabi», the Arab version of the Huffington Post and the London-based «Middle East Eye» and «al-Arabi al-Jadid,» said Naumkin.

In addition, with reference to its sources among the high-ranking Saudi officials orientalist claims that its final purpose, the opponents of Qatar see the resignation of the Emir of Qatar – even if the ultimatum will be finished, Qatar can be put forward new demands.

«The initiators of the campaign of pressure on Doha also focusing on the possible cancellation of the world Cup, to be held in Qatar in 2022,» — said the expert.

Third: confrontation will increase, and Qatar will go to drastic measures, up to the exit of the cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Persian Gulf and greater rapprochement with Turkey and Iran. In this case, it is possible for a change in Qatari policy towards the Syrian crisis, and annexation of Doha to «the three», which will turn into a Quartet.

Fourth: there will be a sharp escalation of the conflict, which will result in a violent confrontation with the hard sides effects. «But at the same time almost unbelievable scenario, such a confrontation can not last any significant time,» — said the expert.

Naumkin found it difficult to answer unequivocally, will Russia win or lose from a new crisis in the middle East.

«Win, say some (analysts — ed.) as they can rise oil prices and, consequently, to gas (though this has not happened yet), in addition, will decrease the volume of LNG supplies from Qatar to the global market, creating a niche which can be occupied by Russian producers. No, say others, because the destabilization of the region will somehow cause damage to all in addition, to implement the already existing considerable Qatari investments in the Russian economy and continue investment cooperation need stability and security in this country,» — says the scientific Director of the Institute of Oriental studies.

In his opinion, Russia, with its resources and influence to middle Eastern partners, can have a calming effect on the conflicting parties not directly intervening in the conflict.

«This will promote the fact that all the actors played in the region of drama Russia are linked by historical ties and many common interests… taking into account the developing cooperation relations of Russia with the Persian Gulf States, as well as Egypt and Jordan, Moscow probably will stick ravnovesnogo policy towards the conflicting parties,» — said the expert.

Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE and Egypt June 5, announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Qatar, accusing Doha of supporting terrorist organizations and destabilize the situation in the middle East. Arabian monarchy ceased all communication with Qatar and ordered his subjects to leave the country. A number of other countries subsequently announced the severance of relations with Qatar. Doha stated that it will not take retaliatory measures.

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