Central Bank risk scenario expects lower oil prices to $25 in 2018

© RIA Novosti / Ilya Patalavaca included in the building of the Central Bank of Russia for Leninsky Prospekt in Moscow. Archival photoCentral Bank risk scenario expects lower oil prices to $25 in 2018© RIA Novosti / Ilya Pitalev

The Bank of Russia in risky scenarios of economic development expects a gradual decline in oil prices from mid-2017 to around $ 25 per barrel in mid-2018; the pace of growth of Russian GDP will be noticeably lower than in the baseline scenario, said the regulator’s report on monetary policy (DCT).

In the previous March report, the Central Bank in the risky scenario suggested the possibility of reducing oil prices to $ 25 per barrel at the end of 2017 and the slowing of Russia’s GDP this year due to this factor to zero.

«Under the influence of rapid and significant scale of growth of volumes of export of oil from Libya and Nigeria, on the one hand, and in the face of slowing economic growth in China and a significantly weaker demand in the energy market, on the other hand, oil prices will gradually decline from the middle of this year and by the middle of next year will reach the level about $ 25 per barrel,» — said in a June report, the Central Bank.

«As a result of the economic growth rate goes significantly lower than in the baseline scenario. The deceleration can begin as early as mid-2017… a Gradual economic recovery will begin in the second half of 2018, while in the medium term, the pace of GDP growth closer to potential level and in future will be determined by structural factors,» the Bank of Russia.

Earlier the Central Bank on Friday announced that it has raised the forecast of growth of Russia’s GDP to 1.3-1.8% in 2017, with 1-1,5%. In the future, the GDP growth rate above 1.5-2% per year will be achievable if the structural changes in the economy, said the regulator.

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