Analysts predict the decline of the ruble to the dollar in August

© RIA Novosti / Natalia to Seliverstova photobacteria in the USA. Archival photoAnalysts predict the decline of the ruble to the dollar in August© RIA Novosti / Natalia to Seliverstova the image Bank

Analysts of investment companies and banks are expecting in August multidirectional fluctuations in the value of assets on the Russian stock market with the weakening of the ruble after the price of oil, according to a survey conducted by RIA Novosti.

In line with the consensus forecast, based on expectations of analysts, the MICEX index for the month fell 1.2%, but RTS — rise of 0.6%. Inflation will be 0.1%.

The price of Brent crude oil drops more than $ 2, to 50.3 per barrel, and gold will remain slightly above the $ 1,250 per ounce, a consensus experts say.

The Euro-dollar exchange rate, according to their estimates, will decrease by 2 cents, to 1,165 USD. The ruble will weaken against the dollar to 60,90 (60,06 — the official exchange rate on 1 August), the Euro is almost unchanged relative to the official exchange rate on August 1, remaining at the level 70,50 ruble, analysts say.

Events in external venues

«In the current situation Russian market is kept quite confidently, the ruble continues to strengthen, stocks grow a little. How long enough of a positive view on Russian assets?», — says Maxim Dvoeglazov from the company «BCS».

In August, the President of the United States Donald trump is likely to sign a bill codifying the existing and introducing new sanctions against Russia, said Valery Vaisberg of the IR Region. This event will launch a period of intensive consultations with the European Union, the outcome of which will significantly affect the attitude of residents to the Russian assets, he draws attention.

Andrei Vernikov of «Zerich Capital» believes that August will pass under the badge of correction in the US stock market – investors will prepare for the fed rate hike at the meeting on September 20 and sell assets. «The U.S. market is severely overheated. Of course, this correction will ricochet emerging markets, in particular, the domestic stock market,» he commented.

In late August, 24-26 numbers, will host a financial conference in Jackson Hall, where will be head of the fed and the ECB, reminiscent of Viktor Veselov from Bank «GLOBEKS».

Oil prices continue decline

Andrew Manko from RIA Rating said that oil will continue to rise due to expectations of a more active intervention in the market by OPEC, and especially Saudi Arabia; in addition, a second wave of shale oil to start to draw your pic, that will be reflected in the statistics of production and number of active drilling rigs, he said.

Technical analysis predicts the target for Brent to 54.5 $ / bbl, also indicates Manko.

The oil market began to respond to the inventory reduction in the US and the rhetoric of some of the OPEC countries about the readiness of the reduction of the oil export sales in excess of the requirements of the agreement OPEC+, agrees and Vladimir Evstifeev from the Bank «Zenit».

However, these factors appear temporary and unreliable, so the deterioration of the situation on the global markets from oil prices will have little chance to gain a foothold above the level of 50 dollars per barrel, he warns.

According to the forecasts of Eugenia Abramovich from Dukascopy Bank SA, the price of Brent crude in August will be traded in the range 46-50 dollars per barrel. Traditionally, the last month of the summer, crude oil inventories in the US will cease to decline, and the weekly statistics of the energy of this country about the change of reserves will no longer contribute to the growth of oil prices, she explains.

The movement of indices

«The stock market after months of pessimism demonstrates a willingness to grow. The tightening of monetary policy in the US is not perceived by investors in a negative way, as high oil prices and cheap ruble, combined with good dynamics of industrial growth contribute to the recovery of interest in shares of industrial companies,» says Weisberg.

But the Russian market is under pressure after a vote on a new package of sanctions by the US, looks weak oil and gas sector, even amid good growth in oil prices, analysts of the company «Veles the Capital». Support on MICEX is in the range of 1800-1850 points, and buy our shares is only in the case of strong rebound from these levels they recommend.

Seasonal deterioration in risk appetite on global markets and the political risks associated with U.S. sanctions and the developments around Sistema, will contribute to the return of the indicator to the support level of 1850 points, said Alexander Golovtsov, of URALSIB.

«The MICEX index will hold an auction Aug within marks 1850-1950 points, the chances of a small drawdown more than options for rapid growth. The RTS index protorguetsya in the range 970-1035 points», — says Anna Bodrova of Alpari.

The MICEX index could fall in the area of 1800 points, predicts Vernikov.

The dollar will add to ruble

The main challenges for the ruble will be the following factors: seasonal deterioration in the balance of payments of the Russian Federation, a further slowdown in capital inflows through carry trade, the subject of sanctions, the instability of the oil market, said Denis Davydov from the «Nordea Bank».

Investors tend to «shift» from ruble-denominated instruments in the us dollar, since the fall is likely to reduce the key rate of the Central Bank of Russia on 0,5 percentage points, which will automatically reduce the yield of OFZ, and the fed, by contrast, may raise the base rate until the end of the year, said Georgiy Vaschenko of IR «freedom Finance».

The uncertainty surrounding the consequences of the introduction of new sanctions against Russian companies from the US will exert pressure on the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar in the next month, adds Abramovich.

The amount of conversion of the dividends into the currency in a month may be 2-3 billion dollars, and cooled appetite for assets in emerging markets may lead to capital flight from the ruble of fixed income instruments, said Golovtsov.

Since mid-month, the Russian company will buy the currency from that in September to repay a significant amount of external debt also evaluates Bodrov.

But amid seasonally weak balance of payments may weaken the dollar, despite good external conditions, says Weisberg. The main reason this movement will be a long-overdue downward correction of the Euro, he explains.

Interesting ideas

Russian companies, though looks cheap, does not attract investors due to the negative foreign background, low activity of players, said Vashchenko.Analysts predict the decline of the ruble to the dollar in August© RIA Novosti / Pavel to Listenpreise in fotomancer strengthened: when to buy the currency to leave

The Russian stock market, despite the observed trend of recovery in the economy, good condition of world markets and undervalued, once again is under pressure of geopolitical factors, which prevents the demand to key «chips», said Eugene Loktionov of PSB.

He is quite reserved about the prospects of the MICEX in August and recommends an increase in their portfolios the share of individual share of the non-oil exporters, in particular, Norilsk Nickel and ALROSA, and also oriented on the domestic consumer market companies such as Aeroflot and retailers.

According to Manko, some better than the market will look like shares of retailers, energy sector and steel companies, while securities of state-owned companies can nervously react to foreign policy events.

Judging by recent trading in the market, investors actually did well last week in the shares of Norilsk Nickel, Severstal amid rising metal prices and a slight weakening of the ruble, said Veselov. Perhaps these papers can serve as a sort of hedge in the future if the revenue dollar companies, the weakening of the ruble and the growth of quotations of metals, he said.

While world steel prices remain relatively stable, stock quotes of metallurgical sector may rise even further, agrees Golovtsov.

The main payment of dividends on the securities, «ALROSA» may contribute to the rise of quotations of these shares, Veselov adds. Vulnerable in the course of a possible «devaluation» of the ruble will paper financial, consumer and telecommunication sectors, says Golovtsov.

Reporting companies for the second quarter, the peak of which will be in August, may keep securities of individual issuers, says Vashchenko. «In the spotlight results of Lenta, Dixy, LSR, MegaFon, Moscow exchange. I guess that is better than the market shares of the retailers, if they were able to increase revenues compared to the first quarter,» — said the expert.Analysts predict the decline of the ruble to the dollar in August© Fotolia / fotomekАналитик: Internet Commerce – «like a bone in the throat» on both sides of the ocean

This analyst believes that the shares of banks and commodity companies, on the contrary, will be under pressure.

«Oil has risen above $ 50 per barrel and could stay at current levels in August, however, given the stagnation of imports, in particular, due to the appreciating Euro, the ruble is not falling, and this prevents the exporters to increase profits. Also from investments in these companies holds a new round of sanctions actions,» he adds.

«Although the sanctions do not directly threaten the state-owned banks and state-owned companies, because of difficulties in refinancing liabilities is not expected, there may be concerns that the pressure on them will increase through the importing countries. First of all, it is European countries that buy gas from «Gazprom», — he commented. Paper monopoly can upgrade at least one year, dropping below 115 rubles, concludes Vashchenko.