Experts believe that August will be difficult for the ruble

© RIA Novosti / Vladimir Traveloperator in fotobanka. Archival photoExperts believe that August will be difficult for the ruble© RIA Novosti / Vladimir Traveloperator the image Bank

The ruble in August will be under pressure, however, sudden failures, similar to what was in the years of crisis, expected, according to participants of a round table held on the theme: «What will happen to the Russian ruble?» — former Minister of Economics of Russia Andrey Nechaev, the scientific Director of the Stolypin Institute Yakov Mirkin, Director of the Institute of strategic analysis FBK Igor Nikolaev and investment analyst Global FX Sergei Korobkov.

After strengthening in earlier months, the recent Russian currency has been under serious tests. So, in anticipation of the introduction of the United States ‘ new sanctions for the previous five days of continuous rise, the dollar price rose almost 1.5 ruble to 60,85 ruble, Euro in four days by 2.6 rubles, to 72.1 of the ruble.

The President of the United States Donald trump in the week signed a law expanding the number of sectoral sanctions against Russia — in particular, it reduces the maximum term of financing of Russian banks under US sanctions, up to 14 days, oil and gas companies, up to 60 days (now 30 days and 90 days, respectively).

And only on Thursday, the ruble became adjusted. So, the dollar calculations «tomorrow» to 20.44 GMT were down 29 cents, to 60,30 of the ruble, the Euro rate by 26 cents, to 71,54 ruble against the previous close, from the data of the Moscow exchange.

Saving penalties

The main factor of the strength of the ruble in the beginning of this year was the carry trade that allowed the Russian currency to grow against the background of the inflow of speculative capital into the country, experts say. Players was advantageous to convert dollars and euros, the basic rate which is low in rubles and buy them, such as high-yielding Russian government bonds, they explain.

Tight monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, on the one hand, keeping inflation under control has helped the speculators to effectively conduct carry trade in favor of the ruble, says Nikolaev. On June 1, the share of nonresidents in the OFZ was more than 30%, or about 2 trillion rubles, which is a record, he added.

«Estimates by the Bank of Russia the maximum value of the carry trade in 4-6 billion dollars in the first half of the year differ from our estimates at the level of 20-25 billion,» said Mirkin.

«However, the attractiveness of carry trade in favor of the ruble gradually decreases, the effectiveness of the carry trade down to the level of the other BRICS countries – Brazil, South Africa, India,» said Nechayev.

In a smooth deflation of the bubble, the carry trade has played a role of sanctions risks, said Mirkin. «Paradoxically, the sanctions seem to have saved us from the fourth devaluation of the collapse of the bubble, sulking, because of the carry trade. The previous three explosive devaluation, which could be similar and current, we observed in August 1998, in 2008-2009 and in late 2014,» he said.

The dollar by the end of the year to 70 rubles?

A weak economy can not be a strong currency, but can be superheated, perioralna currency that is not due to fundamental and speculative factors, as noted in the first half of the year, says Nikolaev.

Now the Russian currency is returned to fundamentally justifiable levels, experts say.

«In August, do not expect any disasters, although the volatility of the exchange rate will rise (likely range of exchange rate fluctuations in 5-15%). The General trend will be aimed at the weakening of the ruble,» — says Mirkin.

«The sharp collapse of the ruble in August will not be – a maximum of 3-5% should be limited. High foreign reserves will not allow a repeat of 1998 or 2008. However, by the end of the year the likely dollar increase in district 68-70 rubles,» says Korobkov.

Nikolaev agree to these estimates and expects the dollar level 67-70 rubles by the end of the year. «In August, the weakening of the ruble will not be dramatic, although the dollar may rise to 62-64 rubles,» he said.

«The output of the current account balance into negative territory for the first time in several years, will be the main factor of pressure on the ruble, said Nechayev. However, the examiner was more reserved in the forecasts of the growth of the dollar and expects the rate to 64 rubles to the end of the year, and in August the us currency will not rise above the 61.5-62 rubles, he said.

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