In the short term, serious inflation risks do not exist

© RIA Novosti / Natalia to Seliverstova in fotobanka the building of the Central Bank of Russia on Neglinnaya street in Moscow. Archival photoIn the short term, serious inflation risks do not exist© RIA Novosti / Natalia to Seliverstova the image Bank

The natural rate of unemployment and increase in consumer activity indicate the absence in the short-term period of significant inflation risks from the demand side, follows from information and analytical materials published by the Bank of Russia.

«In a stable situation in the economy, slowing inflation and easing of credit conditions increased consumer activity of the population… Considering also that unemployment did not exceed its natural level, it allows to make a conclusion about the absence of significant inflationary risks in the short term on the demand side», — the document says.

According to the Bank of Russia, in July 2017, the real disposable monetary incomes of the population remained approximately at the level of the previous month taking into account seasonal adjustment. Real wage growth and stable dynamics of social transfers compensated for the reduction in other income (estimated to have continued to decrease entrepreneurial earnings, and income from property and sale of foreign currency).

The CBR noted that in General the retail trade turnover in July 2017 rose 1% compared to the same period of the previous year. Also increased the volume of consumer lending, increased the tendency of the population to large purchases. So, in recent months there was an increase in household demand for non-durable goods, including cars.

According to the regulator, in recent months the savings rate has decreased compared to the comparable period in 2016, but it still remains above its average for the pre-crisis 2013.

In the third quarter of 2017, the annual growth rate of final consumption expenditure of households will amount to 3-4%, in line with the previous forecast Bank of Russia, the document says.

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