HSE Russian industry overcame the recessionary stage of development

© RIA Novosti / Vladimir Traveloperator in photobacteria banknotes and coins of Russia. Archival photoHSE Russian industry overcame the recessionary stage of development© RIA Novosti / Vladimir Traveloperator the image Bank

Russian industry overcame the recessionary stage of development and have moved into the area, albeit low, but steady growth, according to a review of the development of Russian industry, prepared by the Higher school of Economics (HSE).

According to the latest data of Rosstat, industrial production in Russia in July in annual terms has slowed to 1.1% from 3.5% in June. The Ministry of economic development of the Russian Federation admits the acceleration of growth of Russian industry in August and believes that the July data is unlikely to be interpreted as a change in positive trend.

«Given the obvious change of attitudes of the respondents from negative to positive relative to that observed in the monthly polls last year, it’s safe to say that the industry as a whole made up to play a recessionary scenario and has moved into the zone of a low but sustainable growth,» the review says the HSE.

As the authors of the document, the current industry situation almost ensures that no production failures, but also provides a fairly calm situation with social indicators wages and number of employees.

In August —slightly better than in July

Industry of the Russian Federation will demonstrate in August, a positive trend, but growth will be lower than at the end of the first half (in may, industrial production in Russia grew by 5.6% in annual terms in June — 3.5%), experts say the HSE.

Also, according to the HSE, business sentiment in August was slightly better than in July, and it was primarily due to positive trends in the mining segment.

«The manufacturing industry because of its large podotraslejj heterogeneity and, therefore, high dependence on short-term changes, including price, demand, availability of imported equipment, weather conditions, does not unambiguously and clearly define the trend of its development», — experts explain.
Future prospects in the industry

The official forecast of the Ministry of economic development comes from the growth of industrial production in Russia by the end of 2017 at 2%.

According to the Director of the Center for business studies, Institute for statistical studies and Economics of knowledge, HSE George Ostapkovich, the visible help in the transition dynamics of the industry in a positive area provided anti-crisis support of industries of the government of the Russian Federation, as well as overall stabilization of the macroeconomic situation in the country.

The current model of functioning of industry of the Russian Federation is limited by limiting the annual growth rate of 2.6%, he said.

«Based on current economic conditions, the current macroeconomic situation and the state of the business climate at present and in the near future, you can almost say with certainty that the growth rate below 3% will follow the industry at least two to two and a half years until the first results of technological, structural, managerial, fiscal and institutional rebuilding. Moreover, this restructuring should be conducted gradually, but at the expense of breakthrough maneuvers, especially those related to technological upgrading of industry», — stressed Ostapkovich.

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