More than expected: the Russian economy predicted to record growth

© Fotolia / Creativa Maderos economyMore than expected: the Russian economy predicted to record growth© Fotolia / Creativa Images

The average annual rate of growth of the Russian economy in the next three years will be 3.3% and will exceed the global average. This forecast was voiced by the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) in the report «Structural-investment policy to ensure economic growth in Russia». And in the 2021-2025 years the growth rate will be faster — almost 5% per year. On why this year will be the starting point and the recovery has been whether the economy conditions for such records in the material RIA Novosti.

As explained by the authors of the report, the main driver in the first half of the forecast up to 2025, will be domestic investment demand. The Ministry forecast that investment growth in three years will reach 5.7 percent.

«The elimination of those factors which excessively constrain domestic demand, will lead us to the expected growth of GDP. No miracle here, but it will take certain actions in the field of economic policy», — said Alexander Shirov, Deputy Director of Institute of economic forecasting Russian Academy of Sciences, one of the authors of the report.

«This is a natural background growth — the one where you can expect the economy without artificial stimulus,» — said Miroshnichenko. In his opinion, to reach such heights that predict the Russian Academy of Sciences, will fail — even if oil will cost $ 140 per barrel in 2013.

Investments in fixed capital

The fast growth of the economy, which, according to the expectations of the authors of the report, we will see in the 2021-2025 years will be driven by growing investments in fixed capital. Gradually starting economic growth, we will receive additional revenues that will be invested in the modernization and empowerment of sectors of the economy.

In ran, by the way, expect inflation in Russia is fixed to amount to 4% for the entire forecast period (2035). While the Central Bank suggest that in the medium term, inflation could exceed the target of 4%.

Analysts polled by Reuters pointed to the fact that since the beginning of 2015 inflation in Russia slowed down almost 17%. According to the forecast of Ministry of economic development, year-end inflation will be below the target level of the Central Bank and will amount to 3.7%.

«Inflation has reached a post-Soviet low, the Central Bank may continue easing monetary policy,» say the experts. The expectations of most analysts, in October the Bank of Russia lowered the key rate by another 25 basis points.