Climatologists predict «invasion of hurricanes» to the shores of the USA in the 22nd century

© AFP 2017 / Brendan SmialowskiНаводнение after hurricane Harvey in Houston Texas. 30 August 2017Climatologists predict «invasion of hurricanes» to the shores of the USA in the 22nd century© AFP 2017 / Brendan Smialowski

. Powerful hurricanes, similar in its destructive power on «Harvey», «Mary» and other powerful disasters this year, will occur 18 times more frequently in the southern coast of the United States at the end of the 21st century than at the end of the last century, says climatologist in an article published in the journal PNAS.

«At the end of the last century the probability of a powerful hurricane off the coast of Texas was approximately 1%. After 100 years, the chances of his birth will be about 18% — in other words, this probability will increase dramatically. To this must be ready,» said Kerry Emanuel (Kerry Emanuel) from the Massachusetts Institute of technology (USA).

In recent years, as scholars have noted, significantly increased the frequency of the appearance of the so-called extreme weather events – major storms off the coast of the USA and some countries in East Asia, floods in the continental regions of America and Europe, prolonged periods of drought and heat wave in Russia and Central Asia. All this, according to the researchers, is related to global warming, but the mechanism of its action on the weather is still not fully understood.

Some scientists believe that the increased frequency of hurricanes today is associated with disturbances in the circulation of heat and energy in the atmosphere, «excess» are discarded in the form of powerful storms and vortices. Other climatologists believe that global warming has not increased the overall number of hurricanes, but just «moved» them to the North, with the result that they began to reach the Atlantic coast of the United States and the Caribbean.

Emanuel has taken all these factors in their climate models that predict the emergence of a powerful hurricane near the southern coast of the United States, and tried to predict how frequently such a storm will be visiting them in the future.

This model works quite simply – each new season computer «sows» Atlantic a huge number of «germs» of hurricanes, some of which then dies, and others become more powerful vortices. The likelihood of this outcome depends on many random factors, and temperature of the upper layers of water and other parameters, which are directly affected by global warming.

This model, as he says, he and his associates from MIT first tested on past climate data, attempting to predict how often hurricanes were to occur in the vicinity of Houston and other ports of Texas over the past three decades. This decision was due to the fact that climate models are very poor predictors of the occurrence of hurricanes and their need to «configure» using the real data.

Achieving compliance with the predictions and results of calculations, Emanuel calculated the likelihood of a hurricane class «Harvey» in the pre-industrial era at the turn of the Millennium, today, and 100 years.

In the past, as shown by his calculations, such a storm arose only once in two thousand years, making them a rarity, in 2000, they originated in the Atlantic with a probability of about 1%. Today, these hurricanes appear six times more often due to the increase in average temperatures and other climatic changes.

By the end of the century, if sea temperatures continue to rise, the probability of occurrence of unique «Harvey» will grow by 18 times in comparison with 2000. For this reason, according to climatologist, the authorities of coastal States and U.S. cities need to prepare for the invasion of hurricanes now.


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