Experts believe that Yavlinsky will not gain in the elections the necessary 5% of votes

© RIA Novosti / Alexei Danceparty in potamanthidae Yavlinsky. Archival photoExperts believe that Yavlinsky will not gain in the elections the necessary 5% of votes© RIA Novosti / Alexei Danceparty the image Bank

The founder of the party «Yabloko» Grigory Yavlinsky on the upcoming elections of the President of the Russian Federation can count on the nuclear electorate of the party polled by RIA Novosti analysts believe that the support of primary voters will give Yavlinsky symbolic 1-4%, while experts say that in order for the policy to declare itself, he needs to score more than 5%, which can be achieved with the involvement of situational voter.

Yavlinsky participated in the presidential elections twice, in 1996 and 2000. «Apple» in February of 2016 has decided on the nomination of the founder of the party as its presidential candidate. Regular elections of the President of Russia will be held in March 2018, the campaign is supposed to start in December 2017.

Forecasts

Chairman of the Board of the Foundation for civil society development (Fargo) Konstantin Kostin believes that 2-3% is what Yavlinsky and the Yabloko party already there. «It’s quite hard supporters who vote for them always, that’s his core constituency. These 2% it is necessary to add another 4-5% of the electorate situational, it is necessary to motivate them for elections to come,» the analyst said in an interview with RIA Novosti.

His colleague — head of regional projects of the Expert Institute of social studies (AISI) Andrey Kolyadin — in conversation with RIA Novosti said that whatever clever was the speech Yavlinsky and whatever program he was to the politician is already established over the years an attitude that was characterized by certain numbers in previous elections.

«And for a long time he is in the political field was not present in 2003. Therefore, whatever he is smart and bright thoughts may say, I think that it will not now play the role that would lead to some serious and convincing victories. I did not notice in the political space, which equals political death, he hasn’t risen yet. He can score from less than 1% to 5-6% in the case of a very successful campaign,» says the analyst.

The status quo, the legacy of the «Yabloko»

According to Kostin, if Yavlinsky will be able to attract new voters and result in the upcoming elections exceeds 5%, it will be a good stepping stone for the subsequent development of the party project. «This is a significant backlog in order to participate in regional elections, important mental, emotional component, because that 5% is the threshold to become a parliamentary party. And given the generational shift, we get a very serious legacy that the future leaders of the party «Yabloko» will be», — says the expert.

While Kolyadin believes that if a politician will take their 1-3%, «it may be different situations depending on the level of professionalism and ability to reach the hearts of their constituents», Yavlinsky may at some time again in the political elite as a prominent and recognizable political author. «But so that he could influence others Genesis, I think the election is unable to provide him a platform today,» stated the analyst.

«Grigory Yavlinsky had different results if we’re talking about presidential elections now, I think the maximum limit is 10%, but I think of course he will get significantly less,» predicts Costin. «Given, if there is no other strong candidate was on the liberal wing, many voters in these situational views will join the Yavlinsky. Another thing is that to consider these elections from the standpoint of victory, the opposition parties at least too self-confident» — says the analyst.

Therefore, says Costin, at this stage we are talking about fixing a certain status quo and to create conditions and prerequisites for development of political projects of the party and if Yavlinsky will get a good result if he is gaining «more symbolic 3-4%, then surely the party «Yabloko» will be the main party of the liberal opposition» that will give her some opportunities to participate in regional elections and in preparation for the elections to the state Duma in 2021.

«The party «Yabloko» clearly reached the stage of transit leadership, and now it largely is about the legacy that the founders of the party, the founding fathers will leave to those who come after them, if Yavlinsky is gaining 5-8%, it is very serious basis for further work and for further development of the party «Yabloko», — said Kostin.

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