North Korea «will not give up» nuclear weapons, experts say

© REUTERS / KCNAКим Jong-UN during an inspection of a ballistic missile Hwasong-15 in Korea. 30 November 2017North Korea «will not give up» nuclear weapons, experts say© REUTERS / KCNA

Pyongyang, despite sanctions pressure, will not abandon nuclear weapons that guarantees its survival, but interested players should seek to conduct negotiations on the freezing of military activity in the region — both from the DPRK and from the United States and its allies, according to respondents RIA Novosti experts.

This item is the first stage of Moscow’s proposed roadmap for resolving the North Korea. The second involves direct negotiations with Pyongyang, Washington and Seoul, however, the prospect of such a dialogue remains practically elusive despite the various incoming signals.

The proposal to double the freezing is still valid

A temporary lull around the DPRK was suspended after Pyongyang on the night of November 29 after a two month break, made a new launch of a ballistic missile. According to the preliminary analysis of the US military, Japan and South Korea, tested on Wednesday a missile outperforms all previous. Then again began to sound calls for the strengthening of sanctions against North Korea, and Seoul, the mouth of the new Ambassador in Russia, the young Keun, again urged Pyongyang to abandon the development of missile and nuclear program.

«Regarding sanctions is clear: everyone has seen that the more pressure on Pyongyang, the harder he answers,» commented RIA Novosti prospects of strengthening sanctions, the Chairman of the Presidium of the Council on foreign and defense policy, editor in chief of the magazine «Russia in global politics» Fyodor Lukyanov.

According to him, a way out of this impasse is almost impossible, as «while the parties did not show the slightest desire» to go to any kind of dialogue. In this situation proposed in the summer to Moscow road map on the settlement looks «only at least theoretically feasible» plan.

Earlier on Monday, Deputy foreign Minister Igor Morgulov at the session of the Valdai club in Seoul told in detail about its contents. The first unconditional step should be to reduce military tensions. Morgulov reminded that it is sometimes called the «double freeze». «It’s possible, I’m sure, with the abandonment of the DPRK’s new missile and nuclear tests and at the same time by reducing the scale and intensity of us-South Korean military exercises,» — said a senior Russian diplomat.

Nuclear weapons — the question of the survival of the Pyongyang

«I don’t think there will be a transition to a constructive kind of dialogue. Because everything depends on the President (Donald) trump and his particular vision of the world. Besides, he feels badly for diplomacy and take seriously only the generals and businessmen», — noted in turn, in an interview with RIA Novosti koreamed, Professor at Seoul University Kunmin and the expert club «Valdai» Andrei Lankov.

«However, trump and his entourage are constantly sending signals that they are willing to talk to North Korea, another question – what. If they are really ready to talk about what was announced by the Russian side, well, not even necessarily at 100 percent, then that’s great. Then something can happen. But if the Americans come and lay on the table, the North Koreans requirements: to disarm nuclear or even all the end, of course they do not get anything. Because the DPRK will not give up nuclear weapons. This is an elementary question of survival of Pyongyang,» — said the expert.

Thus, according to him, «it is impossible to portray the DPRK, the poor sheep».

«It’s the guys who have perpetrated one major war on the Peninsula. And if they have the ability to use nuclear blackmail, it is not excluded that they will take an aggressive stance. So the case didn’t come to that, now we need to agree about the freezing. Nuclear weapons the North Koreans will not give up, but about freezing, you can try to negotiate. When the agreement is signed, it will be sold as the first step on the road to nuclear disarmament. It’s the lies will have to say diplomats. But it will just freeze for a while, the longer the better,» said Lankov.

Russia could be an effective mediator

According to him, the last rocket launch of the DPRK pushed even further ghostly prospect of talks with Pyongyang, as Seoul and Washington. However, if sooner or later there will be need of mediation efforts, Russia can be quite effective as a mediator, he said.

According to him, independent role to play Moscow «rather difficult» due to weak economic position in the region, «at least due to the fact that the volume of trade with the DPRK, Russia is second to China where a once in 70, and the turnover with South Korea — somewhere in time 10».

«Feel the difference. But there are things that work in favor of Russia, it is very popular in both South and North Korea… While in North Korea the situation is even more interesting: now it is the political elite believe that it is impossible to trust absolutely no one, including Moscow. But the degree of distrust of Russia is less than all of the other major players. So from the point of view of the DPRK to talk through Russia with anyone – Americans, Chinese – or to talk with Russia somewhere near, still better than talking one-on-one. If Pyongyang decides that they need some kind of broker, this broker will almost automatically become what we are», — concluded the expert.

Earlier, the Ambassador for special assignments of the Russian foreign Ministry Oleg Burmistrov, answering the question about the possible mediation of Moscow between Washington and Pyongyang, said that Russia «is always ready to help.»

North Korea «will not give up» nuclear weapons, experts say© RIA Novosti, Integratiebeleid in fotobanka can fly rockets to the DPRK