At a minimum: mortgage rates fall to 6 percent

© RIA Novosti / Grigory to Sysoeva in photobacteria. Archival photoAt a minimum: mortgage rates fall to 6 percent© RIA Novosti / Grigory to Sysoeva the image Bank

MOSCOW, January 15 — RIA Novosti, Natalia Dembinski. Mortgage rates have reached single digits and continue to go down. In 2017 and recorded a record average rate in the primary housing market decreased to 9.85 percent, and the steady trend in the reduction is maintained. Now the rate appears ready to update the lows. According to forecasts of the Ministry of construction, by 2022-mu to arrange a mortgage will be at 6 percent per annum. How real are the prospects for someone has already come a bright tomorrow — in the material RIA Novosti.

Lower, even lower

By the end of 2017 the average rate on rouble mortgage loans in the primary market reached a historic low at 9.85 per annum. Loans for housing last year received nearly a million Russians in the total amount of 1.7 trillion rubles — broken record 2014.

The vast majority of the credit — rouble. The attractiveness of foreign currency mortgage continues to fall. So, according to the Central Bank, in November the Russian banks was not given any credit in foreign currency for the purchase of housing.

Forecasts of the Ministry of construction is quite optimistic: already the end of 2018, the rate may reach 8%, and to 2022-th — to 6 percent. As explained in the Department, that will contribute to the improvement of the economic situation, subsidies by the state and by the developers — due to all sorts of discounts and promotions.
Inflation below the target

Lower rates on mortgages, however, as consumer loans — a direct consequence of the monetary policy of the Central Bank. Reacting to the positive changes in the economy, the controller successively reduces the key rate, and now it is 7.75 percent per annum. To soften the policy, the regulator allows the rate of inflation in 2017 and 2.5 percent, more than half below the target (4 percent).

As repeatedly stressed in the Central Bank, the priority is not just a one-time reduction of inflation and its consolidation at this level in the coming years. The position is quite clear: the target level should gain stability as the perception of the financial community and in the eyes of the population.

Some calculations

The Bank of Russia indicate: 6-7% for the key rate is rather optimistic. Analysts doubt that mortgage rates will steadily gain a foothold in the region of 6 per cent, at least in the medium term of 3-4 years.

According to the programme documents of the Central Bank, the key rate should be in the range of 1.5-2.5 percentage points from the inflation target. That is, from 5.5% to 6.5%. Thus, the average key rate, and not for the next year, and for the future, 6 per cent.

«When the key rate of 6 percent mortgage may not be the same. It looks like the 7.5-8 percent,» — said Oleg Ivanov, Vice-President of Association of regional banks.

According to analysts of Binbanka, to 2019 the key interest rate fixed at 6.5 percent. Accordingly, the mortgage will be greater by 1.5-2 percentage points — this is the award received by the Bank for the «long» the mortgage money.

Industry analysts, however, warn that further bidding is unlikely to fall below 7 percent, and this level is achievable in the most optimistic scenario. «This scenario is hardly implemented, if something goes wrong — for example, will plummet the price of oil,» explains Natalia Shilova, Director of the center for macroeconomic forecasting and investment strategy of the Bank.

Close to the market

Now the coveted 6 percent on the mortgage can only count families with two and three children. Are those in which in the years 2018-2022 will be born second or third child. Soft loan will help to buy housing on the primary market (the initial payment — not less than 20 percent) and to refinance the old loan.

Refinancing a mortgage the borrower is seeking to obtain the most comfortable level of debt load. As noted by the bankers, for most borrowers the middle class — and that the main users of mortgage loans — while it is close to the limit.

For example, the US population pays an average of about 10-11 percent of income on all loans, including mortgages. In the calculations, the fed summarizes all income and all debt burden.

In Russia the situation is different — the population is not so acreditando, and mortgages are in a minority. As a rule, the payment on a mortgage loan should not be higher than 30-40 percent of the borrower’s income, and is an extreme version. If the threshold is exceeded, banks will not approve a loan: the slightest difficulty incurred by the borrower, carry big risks.