Experts told about the possible content of the message of the President

© RIA Novosti / Michael Clientgenerated in potamanthidae the message of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin to the Federal Assembly. Archival photoExperts told about the possible content of the message of the President© RIA Novosti / Michael Clientgenerated the image Bank

The economic part of the presidential address to the Federal Assembly needs to remove uncertainty for business and return the desire to invest. The President also will outline the contours of the future development of the economy over the next six years, according to respondents RIA Novosti experts.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will deliver the traditional address to the Federal Assembly on Thursday, March 1. Press Secretary of the President Dmitry Peskov has already stated that performance assessment and Outlook for the future the message will coincide with the program of Putin in the elections. Presidential elections in Russia held on March 18.

«Our economy will break out of the cycle of growth restrictions, which today has developed in 1.5-2%. We need a minimum of 3.5% or more. Therefore, the expectations of business and expert community from the messages are that will be marked with some political contours of the upcoming decisions, as the gap between what we have in terms of potential growth and the need to overcome», — the adviser of Institute of modern development Nikita Maslennikov.

Specific tasks

Increased interest in the message is linked to the fact that it will be a little more than two weeks before the election, says the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and entrepreneurs Alexander Shokhin.

«It will be the first and maybe the only public expanded policy statement, Putin not only as President but as a presidential candidate. In this regard, we expect that the President will talk not only about current objectives for 2018, but also about the prospects for the development of the country for six years», — said the head of RSPP.

Maslennikov expects that the President will speak on a wide range of economic issues. «Expectations are many: it is the investment climate, certainty in the tax system, the idea of how will be reformatted pension system is how we begin to shape long-term money in the economy through the restoration of a funded system», — he explained.

In turn, the chief economist in the «development Center» HSE Valery Mironov expects that the message will be verbal intervention, which will give a signal to business to increase investment. In his opinion, the key factor that’s holding back growth is the uncertainty surrounding economic policy.

«I would like that message was aimed at reducing this uncertainty. Long-term investments require a mental attitude, this animal desire to invest, that is, confidence that they will pay off,» added Mironov.

Signals, drivers, taxes

The head of RSPP expects that the message will affect all aspects of life in the country – foreign policy, social and economic development, so it is unlikely that the President can afford to focus only on certain issues.

«But, of course, we, the business community, we hope that the President will focus on the development of entrepreneurship and economic freedom as the main drivers», — he explained.

In addition, the business traditionally expects from the President of signals in a part of the future design of the tax system, especially given the completion in 2018 of the moratorium on the increase in the tax burden and the ongoing government discussions about this.

«Business now it is important to understand what the policy will, beginning in 2019. How to constraints tax system, other fiscal relations between the state and business, to now, without waiting for the formation of the new government and the introduction of the budget to the state Duma for the next three years, to understand the contours of the fiscal policy for the next five or six years», — said the head of RSPP.

Mironov from the HSE wants to hear the message proposals to reform the judicial system relating to economic crimes, which also will support the Russian business. The head of RSPP Shokhin also called the most important theme of reducing the pressure on businesses from both law enforcement and administrative oversight agencies.

Program selection

In the previous message, Putin instructed the government to develop a plan for the country’s development until 2025, which will allow Russia to reach the economic growth rate above the world at the turn of 2019-2020. This work has involved experts — «Stolypin club» Boris Titov and the Centre for strategic research headed by Alexei Kudrin. Perhaps at the end of this message becomes clear, what program will be adopted as a basis, says Mironov from the higher school of Economics.

«In this letter I would like to hear what the program will be adopted for development of the Russian economy so that businesses understand what the plan will develop, and that he is like a schizophrenic looks at two programs: program a program by Titov & Kudrin. To this schizophrenia be removed from the brain with the business to understand what will be adopted that program or another, or combination, it is important that the President said this,» — said Mironov.

Putin in the message can also indicate the position to conduct a so-called budget manoeuvre. In January 2018, Russian officials began talking about the fact that the government is considering a budget maneuver that includes an increase in spending on health, education and infrastructure by reducing costs on several other budget items, as well as possible tax optimization.

«I think the President will Express the attitude towards the need for structural manoeuvre in government spending, when we need to spend more on health, education, infrastructure, all of which improves the quality of human capital,» said Maslennikov.

Experts agree that Putin’s speech will be the guide to action for the new Cabinet.

Experts told about the possible content of the message of the President© RIA Novosti / Alexei Nikolskiye in fotobanka urged Trustees not to give impracticable promises»This message is exactly the case when it can be announced presidential scenario of economic development of Russia in the next political cycle, with definition and boundaries, and maybe even target parameters and assignments to the new government», — concluded Maslennikov.

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