The experts assessed the prospects and risks of the meeting, trump and Kim Jong UN

© AFP 2018 / Mandel NganПрезидент the United States Donald trump. Archival photoThe experts assessed the prospects and risks of the meeting, trump and Kim Jong UN© 2018 AFP / Mandel Ngan

Negotiations U.S. President Donald trump and the leader of the DPRK Kim Jong-UN could be held later than initially planned. Such a conclusion can be drawn from messages distributed on the eve of the White house about trump’s conversation with the President of South Korea, moon Jae Otherwise.

The document States that the us side hopes the meeting with the North Korean leader «until the end of may», while just a few days ago saying to meet «before may.» Press Secretary of the White house Sarah Sanders at a press briefing on Friday confirmed that the US administration is working on the preparation of the meeting, but declined to provide any details, noting that new information on the venue and date for the summit yet. However, she did not specify what are his new time frame.

Against the background of these terse reports from Washington and the traditional silence of Pyongyang experts speculate on how the likelihood and the entourage of the upcoming meeting and its possible consequences. RIA Novosti presents an overview of opinions of several experts on the subject.

View from the US: risks for trump

The upcoming talks between US President Donald trump with the North Korean leader Kim Jong-UN contain serious risks for the United States, according to U.S. experts.

«President trump entering into the situation, which for decades was not left alone by other presidents, diplomats, statesmen. By agreeing to this summit, President of the trump rejected the traditional approach to policy toward North Korea,» — said the Director of the programs of study Asian Institute of the Woodrow Wilson in Washington Abraham Denmark.

Speaking recently in the American capital, the expert reminded that the previous presidents of the United States has always received the DPRK’s invitation for talks, but only to trump such accepted the invitation.

«Previous presidents did not accept this proposal because it is a huge concession to North Korea, it is perceived as a lever of pressure on USA in the course of negotiations, it gives immense credibility and legitimacy to the leadership of North Korea. If the advance to go on this assignment without any concessions from North Korea, it turns all of the negotiations upside down. So we found ourselves in an unfamiliar situation,» said Denmark.

He also stated that the DPRK has still not commented on the impending negotiations, and interpreted this «silence» as the desire to preserve maximum flexibility ahead of the meeting.

In turn, the former assistant Secretary of state for intelligence and research Stapleton Roy believes that the event has positive aspects, although their bit.

«We have no decent options against North Korea. We declared a nuclear and missile program of North Korea is unacceptable, but we have no acceptable way to block its implementation,» stated Roy.

According to him, the negotiations can demonstrate the good will of the United States to negotiate on that if Washington does decide to use force. Another advantage he sees is that the DPRK operates through representatives of South Korean and that South Korea supports these negotiations, whereas in the past Pyongyang has sought to speak with US directly, pushing Seoul to the side.

However, Roy also sees the negotiations many risks.

«Without any preliminary preparation President trump has embarked on a major initiative «backyard» of China and Japan. None of these countries were not consulted and not informed her in advance, and both don’t like this behavior at a high level», — the expert believes.

Also, according to him, it is a mistake to create great expectations from the meeting, because she has all the chances come to naught.

Finally, Roy said, the U.S. and the DPRK completely different understandings of denuclearization, he said. North Korea was offered two options — to reduce its nuclear Arsenal along with other powers or to get rid of it, but once the US military withdraw from the Korean Peninsula, abandon security guarantees to South Korea and can withstand 10-20 years of waiting. In addition, the no trump experienced team of negotiators from the DPRK, recalls Roy.

On Tuesday, trump has sent in the resignation of Secretary Rex Tillerson, saying the disagreements with him on several issues, including the DPRK. In his place, suggested former CIA Director Mike Pompeo. The White house signaled that the President intends to form a new team, which will prepare the negotiations with Pyongyang.

Leading researcher of the Center for Korean studies Institute of Far Eastern studies Konstantin Asmolov also cautions against excessive expectations from a possible meeting.

«Information about the upcoming summit, of course, caused a stir, though, as in the case of the inter-Korean summit had not even to open the champagne and get the bottle out of the fridge… Before the summit in may will happen is still a sufficient number of events that can affect the decision of the parties,» writes Asmolov on pages the Internet-editions «New Eastern Outlook».

According to him, such events can become military exercises the US and South Korea, as well as «additional unilateral measures of pressure» on the DPRK from the United States.

Recently, Washington imposed new sanctions against Pyongyang on charges of use of chemical weapons in case of poisoning Kim Jong-Nam – brother-the leader of the DPRK. Although, as pointed out by the expert, officially the fault of the authorities of the DPRK in the crime has not been proved.

«The preparation of the summit in any case will be significant in the atmosphere of mutual distrust and attributing to both sides of the conspiracy plans… the Carrying out of such summit will require decisions by the mass of purely technical questions. Security both leaders can be quite difficult, which goes into site selection,» said Asmolov.

He notes that hardly a meeting is carried out in China, South Korea or the United States, and the emergence of trump in Pyongyang «also seems not very probable.» Tensions in Russian-American relations is unlikely to use as such playgrounds and Russia. Among the possible countries that could make the summit, according to the expert, Switzerland, Sweden or Mongolia, as well as «exotic option» with the settlement Panmunjom between North Korea and South Korea and communication across the border, «passing in the middle of the negotiating table».

The experts assessed the prospects and risks of the meeting, trump and Kim Jong UN© AP Photo / Ahn Young-oopal consent: Donald trump is ready to meet with Kim Jong Inong Thursday in Stockholm the Minister of foreign Affairs of the DPRK ri Yong Ho, who intends to stay there until Sunday. The Swedish authorities already declared that are ready to assist in the organization of the summit.

Speaking about the possible positions of the parties in the negotiations, Asmolov suggests that Kim Jong-UN could declare a moratorium on nuclear and missile tests, pozitsionirovali it as a goodwill gesture. Previously, such a consent of the leader of the DPRK reported by representatives of South.

The expert reminds about Russian scientists to separate the nuclear program from the missile. «If in fact the denuclearization looks undiscussable (nuclear status made to the Constitution of the country), the freezing of the program of development of missiles, as well as assurance of non-proliferation of missile and nuclear technology that may be subject to bargaining,» he said.

According to Asmolov, some of the things the Americans can also go «without much loss of face», for example, to reduce the scale of its joint exercises, to refrain the time the North Korean moratorium from similar military demonstrations of the type of the flight of bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons.

«The idea (of the summit) itself is good; the theoretical probability of the event is nonzero; the effect of the summit as activities that temporarily reduce tension, there is more; long-term political consequences under the essential question» — summarizes the author.

© AP Photo / Ahn Young-aapresident USA Donald trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong UN on a TV screen. Seoul, 10 Aug 2017The experts assessed the prospects and risks of the meeting, trump and Kim Jong UN© AP Photo / Ahn Young-aapresident USA Donald trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong UN on a TV screen. Seoul, 10 Aug 2017
The view from China: the hope and glimmer

The experts assessed the prospects and risks of the meeting, trump and Kim Jong UN© RIA Novosti / Michael Voskresenskiye in fotomancer does not exclude that the U.S. does not have a unified position on Chartari fellow of the Academy of social Sciences China Fan czichi also draws attention to the precarious nature of the arrangements for the meeting.

«Exchanges (threats) between the U.S. and North Korea in the past has been the subject of frequent trouble. Things can change faster than expected. And even if the Kim (Jong-UN) and trump will meet in may, provided that there will be no failures, the meeting may not produce serious positive results», — the expert writes the newspaper China-US Focus.

In addition, like our American colleagues, czesi indicates that trump has no command, is able in such a short time to prepare suggestions for discussions with Pyongyang, in addition to requirements for immediate and complete denuclearization.

«And even if the two leaders manage to avoid a military conflict, the other parties in this issue and expect more, for example, to break the deadlock between the US and North Korea… In this sense, the proposed meeting trump and Kim will be a great opportunity to test the intentions of both parties, and I hope that the two egoistic leaders will be able to use it», — says the expert.

In turn, the head of the research Center of northeast Asia Jilin University BA Dagsson in an interview with RIA Novosti suggested that the possible negotiations, the U.S. and the DPRK is the result of «many years of collaboration each of the parties.»

The experts assessed the prospects and risks of the meeting, trump and Kim Jong UN© RIA Novosti / Ramil to Setdiscoverable in photoboxes expressed hope for Russia’s help in resolving the situation around North Korea»you Can say that «everything reaches its limit, inevitably drawn back». Previously, we could observe that the situation on the Korean Peninsula was literally on the brink of war, and the neighboring country remained in suspense, did not rule out the occurrence of accidental conflict. But now it is reassuring that the DPRK, South Korea and the United States are in a «rational» state, Kim Jong-UN proposed the idea of a peace Treaty, all this is a huge change,» — said the expert.

According to him, if the United States and the DPRK will be able to carry out a dialogue, South and North Korea reach a peace settlement, the situation in the region will move in a positive direction. In addition, the «side effect» will spread to other countries North-East Asia.

«You can only say that we see it as hope and a glimmer. If the leaders of countries such as the US and the DPRK will be able to sit down at the negotiating table is undoubtedly good news for the further development of the situation,» says BA Danestone.

The experts assessed the prospects and risks of the meeting, trump and Kim Jong UN© RIA Novosti, Integratiebeleid in fotobanka can fly rockets to the DPRK

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