«Chemical» sanctions: can the Russian currency new blow

© RIA Novosti / Valery Melnikova in Photobacterium on duty, dressed in chemical protection gear«Chemical» sanctions: can the Russian currency new blow© RIA Novosti / Valery Melnikovite the image Bank

MOSCOW, April 17 — RIA Novosti, Natalia Dembinski. Recouping part of the losses after a collapse caused by a classic market panic, the ruble has again weakened against the dollar and the Euro as investors await the next round of sanctions promised by Washington. As stated by the U.S. permanent representative to the UN, Nikki Haley, they «will affect all companies that have worked with technical equipment, dealing with Assad and use chemical weapons». How will this affect the Russian currency, it can be more severe and prolonged collapse and when to expect a new wave in the material RIA Novosti.

Fears were not justified

On Saturday, the United States, Britain and France launched missile strikes on military and civilian targets in Syria, and on Monday the market opened at a predictable disadvantage. Events could develop in a negative scenario. On the background of increased geopolitical risks, the market participants waited for reducing the cost of ruble assets and the stock price. However, the market reacted with restraint: concerns that the conflict will grow into something more serious, was not confirmed.

«There was no risk significant damage to the Russian-owned infrastructure, any risk of loss of personnel,» says financial analyst «Discovery Broker» Timur Nigmatullin.

Ahead of the new restrictions imposed by the U.S., however, as observers, tougher sanctions is not expected: they will not affect the largest exporters of oil and gas industries, ferrous or non-ferrous metals or Russian debt.

«I don’t think it’s worth waiting for sales activity. Now a combination of factors seems to indicate that the risks decreased and they are not so high, — said Nigmatullin. — Panic is unlikely to occur».

In any case, the two most severe scenario is not realized: the U.S. Treasury has opposed restrictions on transactions with Russian Federal loan bonds, and the coalition of US, France and the UK has only taken a single attack against Syria.

Everything else, according to the experts, the ruble will survive. Moreover, the domestic currency is already accustomed that the American administration is gradually increasing the pressure in all directions of Russian exports.

Analysts admit that if that happens, expect the financial Apocalypse. Another thing is that the restrictions in the first place, be directed against Iran, where there were problems with the deal on the lifting of sanctions related to the nuclear program. Then the price of oil will go to new heights — the barrel can rise up to $ 100.

As for Russian oil, to replace the technically it is not very difficult. Spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and Iran put together, block Russian exports. But in practice, the constraint for Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. About one third of the European gas market is the supply from Russia. Until this dependence is not overcome, tougher sanctions, most likely, will not follow.

Source