The experts called for sanctions against companies and public debt of Russia the greatest threat from the United States

© RIA Novosti / Natalia to Seliverstova in photobacteria embankment and Moscow Kremlin. Archival photoThe experts called for sanctions against companies and public debt of Russia the greatest threat from the United States© RIA Novosti / Natalia to Seliverstova the image Bank

The decision of the President of the United States Donald trump to delay the introduction of new sanctions against Russia should not be taken literally, they can occur at any time and affect different areas, the most serious damage to the economy caused sanctions against major companies and banks, and debt, experts say interviewed by RIA Novosti.

On the eve of the edition of the Washington Post, citing sources, reported that the President of the United States Donald trump has decided to suspend the introduction of new economic sanctions against Russia, which on Sunday announced US Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley.

According to the chief economist of «URALSIB» Alexei Devyatov, trump’s statement about the intention to postpone sanctions against Russia must not be misleading. «By and large it means nothing, because the trump man is quite inconsistent. So I would not these statements are hard to navigate, because sanctions may follow, and any time», — said the ninth.

The opacity and negativity

He recalled that the sanctions, which were announced at the weekend, could be directed against companies that allegedly are related to the production of chemical weapons in Syria. «It’s hard to say what the list of these companies, but maybe if it’s not public, not a large company, it may not be so bad, maybe the market would have reacted very badly» — says the expert.

According to the chief analyst of «Nordea Bank» Denis Davydov, the Russian economy any significant new sanctions. «I don’t want to read tea leaves, who is there (in the list — ed.) will get: metallurgists, chemists, or someone else. It is very difficult to say, because the logic of sanctions is very opaque in nature. And because of the opacity of logic, accept the new limitations of any sanctions, any companies that fall into the sanctions list, represent a threat to the Russian economy», — said Davydov RIA Novosti.

Agree with him and Dmitry Polevoy from ING. «We have seen sanctions against RUSAL and Oleg Deripaska. If there is something like that against other big companies, then of course it will be negative for the market, to the ruble,» — he said.

«What’s really scary is the sanctions against the national debt. The bill is before Congress for consideration. Accept — not accept, is not very clear. There are two things — the sanctions against the new debt and sanctions against the large state banks, known to us all,» said Devyatov.

Earlier in April, two U.S. Congressman proposed to impose sanctions against Russian financial institutions. The bill offers six-month period to prohibit citizens and permanent residents of the United States any transactions with the Russian sovereign debt and to impose sanctions against 7 Russian banks: Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank, Bank of Moscow, Rosselkhozbank, Promsvyazbank, Bank.

So the bill has received the status of law, it should take both houses of Congress and signed by the President. Prospects for the bill are still unclear. The U.S. Treasury, according to Bloomberg previously warned that the imposition of restrictions on debt of the Russian Federation will lead to the containment of the growth of the Russian economy, will increase the pressure on its banking sector.

According to Devyatov, the impact of the adoption of this package can be extremely negative: even distribution of sanctions only on new debt may cause an Exodus of investors. «Because it will run everything at once, then just the ruble will collapse and then it will be the most the nightmare. Herd behavior a large number of players in the debt market is fraught» — said the ninth.

Disabling Russia from SWIFT is also «very unpleasant thing», and may substantially affect the ability of international payments, including for the supply of our energy resources, said the analyst of «URALSIB».

«These are things that can hurt us significantly. And if that happens, we can expect that the dollar will soar above 70 rubles, will remain there for a measurable period of time. It is possible to assume that in connection with sharply increased turbulence, inflationary risks, the Central Bank will again undertake active actions, in particular, quite dramatically could raise the key rate», — the expert believes.

Such a shock, according to Devyatova, of course, will affect the economy — after some time, the economic growth rate will decrease, approaching zero next year instead of the expected 1,5-2%. However, he expressed hope that until the development of such a scenario will not happen.

The Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Anton Siluanov, commenting on the possibility of imposing sanctions in respect of public debt, said Russian investors will replace the foreigners for whom new restrictions will be a «shot in the leg.» The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, according to him, the current situation may not overcome the loan market due to windfall, but will occupy within the country, regardless of the possible limitations.

The experts called for sanctions against companies and public debt of Russia the greatest threat from the United States© RIA Novosti / Vitaly Policyclic ideas

Source