Former advisers to the state Department on Iran predict the imminent collapse of the nuclear deal

© Photo : an account of the Ministry of defense of Iran network FacebookБаллистическая missile, Iran. Archive photoFormer advisers to the state Department on Iran predict the imminent collapse of the nuclear deal© Photo : an account of the Ministry of defense of Iran network Facebook

Former adviser to the U.S. Department of state believe that a nuclear deal with Tehran in the near future expects a complete collapse after Iran will cease to receive the necessary economic benefits in connection with the recovery of the U.S. sanctions.

The US President Donald trump on may 8 announced the release of the historic multilateral agreement with Iran on its nuclear program. The deal, also known as the «Joint comprehensive plan of action» (SVPD), was achieved by Iran and the «six» of international mediators, namely, China, France, Germany, Russia, Britain and the United States together with the EU High representative for foreign Affairs and security policy — in 2015, after years of difficult negotiations.

In exchange for the lifting of sanctions, Iran agreed to significant concessions, agreeing to put full control of its nuclear programme, confirming that under no circumstances will not seek to obtain, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons.

The US last week also announced that with the withdrawal from the agreement they restore all sanctions against Iran including secondary, that is, against other countries doing business with Iran. Previously, these sanctions were suspended in the framework AGREEMENT.

The transaction is doomed to failure

After the US withdrawal from the agreement hopes to save the deal in the long run no, experts believe.

«Can the AGREEMENT survive after the administration of it? In theory, Yes. It can survive without the United States. But in practice, I think her days are numbered,» said a former special adviser to the state Department on nonproliferation and arms control Robert Einhorn. During the administration of former President Barack Obama Einhorn played a leading role in shaping U.S. policy against Iran’s nuclear program as sanctions, and directly in the negotiations between the «six» and Iran.

Earlier, Iranian foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the Iranian authorities will decide in coming weeks whether to stay in AGREEMENT.

«The Europeans remain committed to the AGREEMENT. They are looking for ways to protect European companies from the secondary impact of US sanctions, and they’re trying to encourage companies to work with Iran. The Iranians say about the willingness to stick to the deal, but only if they get economic benefits, they are entitled to,» — said the former diplomat, speaking at the Brookings Institution.

He is convinced that almost all of the major European banks and companies will decide to curtail their business with Iran, and as a result, Iran will cease to receive those economic benefits that the country hoped to concluding an agreement with the «six».

«European governments, along with China and Russia may be able to convince Iran to adhere to the deal for several months, maybe a little longer, but ultimately, I think, in combination with decreasing economic benefits and a strong position of hardliners in Iran will eventually lead Iran to decide that they are no longer bound by the deal. And it would mean the collapse of the AGREEMENT,» said Einhorn.

His position was accepted by the expert of the Brookings Institution, former external Advisor to senior state Department officials on Iran Suzanne Maloney.

«The Europeans may be able to create some new channels for the protection of a number of projects, but in the end they will not be able to create enough space for expanding economic ties between Iran and Europe. Definitely, it will not be enough to compensate for the fact that it was open (for Iran) as a result of the suspension of sanctions (from the US),» said the expert.

Overall, as noted by Maloney, the strategy of this administration is to exert maximum pressure on Iran in the hope then to achieve the «best deal». There are those people in the White house who are counting on a regime change in Iran.

«Given this strategy, I expect that in the AGREEMENT it’s impossible to stay more than a few weeks,» — said the expert.

Speaking about Russia, Einhorn stressed that Moscow was a very good partner for U.S. negotiations with Iran. In addition, he believes that Russia is interested in preservation trades and will try to convince Iran not to get out of it.

«I think they want US to remain in AGREEMENT, they want to save the transaction. I’m sure the Russians will try to persuade Iran to stay in the deal. Ultimately, I think they will not succeed», — says the former diplomat.

At the same time he believes that Russia «will try to use the exit (Washington), to isolate the United States.» «Russia is not happy about this development, but I think they will try to use this to their advantage,» said Einhorn.