Called effects of global trade wars

© RIA Novosti / Natalia to Seliverstova photobacteria in the USA. Archival photoCalled effects of global trade wars© RIA Novosti / Natalia to Seliverstova the image Bank

A global trade war have «come to naught» in the near future, otherwise the world economic space there is a lot of transformation, consider interviewed by RIA Novosti experts.

The international monetary Fund has already warned that the consequences of such wars can undermine the principles of the WTO, to destroy the global supply chain of goods and greatly reduce the chances of overcoming trade barriers in the future. The reason for these concerns was the economic confrontation between the US and China — primarily the introduction of mutual duties on tens of billions of dollars.

«I think that in the short term — a year or two, the entire world will «wallow» in these mutual advertisements on increase of the customs duties and stricter trade policies,» — said lecturer at the Institute of business studies Ranepa Galina Kuznetsova.

New realities

Gradually national economy will adjust to the new environment, I’m sure Kuznetsova. «US «swallow» that the goods will fly in China more and China on his side — American goods. Just prices will rise, will change the macroeconomic indicators,» she said.

But further trade liberalization will continue. «This is a global trend, because the modern world is impossible, especially when free trade prevails in the interests of transnational corporations. They will ensure that the economy be liberalized,» said Kuznetsova.

In turn, Deputy rector of the Financial University under the government of Russia Alexei Prong, on the contrary, believes that the return to liberalization will not.

«This forcemeat cannot be scrolled back. The actions you are taking today, the United States, is an attempt to recreate the middle class, the economic policy of the President of trump supports more than half of the American population. Therefore the next US President will be forced to walk in that direction — to protect American markets from cheap imports, the recreation industry,» he said.
Fragments of globalization

Currently started de-globalization and the single market will be created closed to foreign «trading clubs», says Barb.

«A single trading area in the world will not. One of the configurations of the world economy may be the triangle EU-Russia-China, the establishment of a unified Eurasian space from Lisbon to Shanghai. It can be one of the decaying fragments of a common retail space. And then we’ll be one of the players that determine policy in this market, and supplier of energy resources to China, Europe and other countries. Why not?» — says the expert.

According to the Director of the Russian APEC study center, Ranepa Tatyana Flegontova returns the trend for establishing the bilateral trade-economic blocks is a major megaregional projects. «But it is important to note that this is the large blocks between the major powers», she said.

Flegontova also suggested that emerging now in Russia the national project for export will not emphasis on the integration unit and for trade liberalization. «Key tools should first be directed to the support of our manufacturers, the development of their own competitiveness,» she added.

In July, Brussels has imposed provisional measures on imports of 23 categories of steel products in the form of tariff quotas. For each of the 23 categories of fees in the amount of 25% will be in effect only after imports exceeded the average for the last three years. Protective measures may be applied for a maximum of 200 days. They apply to all countries, except Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and some others.

Moscow also has imposed additional duties on some American goods, if their analogues are produced in Russia.

In July, began to operate mutual increased customs duties between the United States and China after Washington imposed import duty of 25% on 818 import of goods from China total volume of supply in 34 billion dollars a year. As a countermeasure Beijing the same day, established a duty of 25% on import of equivalent amount of American goods.

The twentieth of July, Donald trump has declared its readiness, if necessary, to impose duties on all Chinese imports. According to estimates of the census Bureau of the United States, in 2017, the volume of import of Chinese goods in the United States amounted to 505,5 billion dollars.

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