The earthquake in the Urals: the power and place knew, time to predict are unable

© Depositphotos / tomwangДорога after the earthquakeThe earthquake in the Urals: the power and place knew, time to predict are unable© Depositphotos / tomwangПодпишись to daily updates RIA Science

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On the night of 5 September in the Chelyabinsk region there was an earthquake of magnitude 5,4 points. After the main shock, the intensity in the epicentre was 6.5 points, followed by a series of seven additional less power. According to MOE, victims and victims aren’t present significant damage too. An earthquake so frightened the inhabitants of the southern Urals, was not unexpected for the scientists-seismologists.

A sleepless night in the Ural mountains

«The population is not asleep. Very scared. How to act in these situations, we are not taught. Until treated his knowledge — took the documents and went outside, some went to relatives. We awaited the morning of <…> the Alert through the emergency have not received, because it was a natural phenomenon. Usually before a thunderstorm and text messages arrive all several times. But here? People always panic,» he wrote on his page in «Vkontakte» Chairman of the Board of deputies of Katav-ivanovska Galina Fedoseeva. This small town in the Chelyabinsk region was close to the epicenter of the earthquake.

Residents of other cities of the southern Urals, which felt the tremors, reacted even more emotionally.

Meteorite saw, whirlwind saw, and now the earthquake was seen. What’s next?

— Julia Mirsanova (@JuliaMirsanova) 5 Sep 2018

awake at night is what opens the closet, and not even to think that Ufa could be an earthquake ✅

— Dári 🎭 (@Not__Daria) 5 Sep 2018

Many have posted on the social network movies where stagger chandeliers, ring dishes, and the ceiling plaster is falling, or described damage to buildings. According to user reports, the walls of the city hospital Katav-ivanovska went cracks, in the city of ash fell road. The full picture of destruction emerges only a few days, when the regional authorities will collect all the data, but it is clear that the tremors rather nerve racking to the Urals, what caused serious damage.

In the Urals the earthquake occurred: no one was injured, but the tremors of magnitude 5.5 was felt in Chelyabinsk, Ufa and Yekaterinburg. MOE began checking the damage to buildings and infrastructure https://t.co/lam4t2N2Yp pic.twitter.com/daBf9G5ugl

— Ilsur Shagaliev (@shagaliev97) 5 Sep 2018

Predicted earthquake

«Magnitude occurred on 5 September in the Urals mountains earthquake of 5.4 on the surface the intensity of vibrations at the epicenter was six to six and a half points in the settlements not above four or five points. Serious casualties and destructions. People unless frightened, because they’re not used to. Most of the territory of our country — the main Central Russia — aseismic, that is, we don’t have earthquakes with intensity more than five points, and then such an event. Of course, people got scared,» says Professor Yevgeny Rogozhin, the head of Coordination and forecasting centre, head of laboratory of methods of the forecast of earthquakes Institute physics of the Earth (IPE) RAS.

According to Professor Nicholas Koronovskii, head of the Department of dynamic Geology geological faculty, Moscow state University, Chelyabinsk earthquake can be considered as average power. Such shocks can cause serious damage, if only in the construction of buildings, especially industrial, were not taken into account the risks associated with seismic activity.

In Russia the design and construction rely on the General seismic zoning map created in 2015 by IPE staff under the direction of Evgeny Rogozhin. Hearth Chelyabinsk earthquake is in a zone where a high risk of aftershocks intensity six points.

«Strictly speaking, if we look at our map, last earthquake in the place and power can be considered predicted. Another thing, in time it can not be predicted, because no precursors of this level is unknown to science,» adds Evgeny Rogozhin.

One of the few earthquakes that could predict — Tangshan, occurred in China in 1976.

«The tremors started at night, but two hours before that brought to the streets. So I killed two hundred thousand people, not two or three times more,» says Nikolai Koronovskii.

The research group, headed by Rogozhin, also have experience of accurate forecasts: in 2015 Russian scientists of IPE RAS predicted time and force a re-push earthquake in Nepal saved the lives of several emergency workers working at the site of natural disasters.

«Scientists have spent many years trying to collect information that allows to predict not only the strength and location of the earthquake, but also his time. Some progress is being made, although I have to say, the breakthrough has not yet seen. Now it is a developed research area, and to use our achievements a hundred percent in practice earlier», explains the researcher.

How is earthquake

According to Professor Koronovskii, Ural yesterday’s earthquake is the result of the process of formation of the Ural mountains. From the standpoint of Geology, these mountains began to rise recently — two or three million years ago.

«The load is there, accumulated stress in the earth’s crust and upper mantle, which leads to the tremors, the discharge of this tension,» says the scientist.

According to Yevgeny Rogozhin, the earthquake generally three stages: preliminary tremors (foreshocks), the main push (the most powerful and destructive) and the period of aftershocks (aftershocks), which sometimes lasts for several years.

© Illustration RIA Novosti . Depositphotos / nicolasprimolaСхема earthquakeThe earthquake in the Urals: the power and place knew, time to predict are unable© Illustration RIA Novosti . Depositphotos / nicolasprimolaСхема earthquake

«Yesterday the residents of the areas where the earthquake occurred, felt about seven aftershocks. United geophysical service RAS recorded only one. Apparently, the rest were pretty weak and felt only in the vicinity of home», — said Rogozhin.

Weak, generally considered the initial intensity of no more than four points. Such earthquakes are characteristic of Central Russia, particularly in Moscow and the region. In the capital, sometimes gently shaking, said Koronovskii. This is usually the echoes of the tremors that have occurred over several thousands of kilometers from here, in Romania, in Vrancea zone or in the sea of Okhotsk.

Truly seismically active regions is the North Caucasus, the far East, the Kuril Islands, Kamchatka, Sakhalin, Baikal and Altai-Sayan area, the North of Yakutia. There is a high risk of tremors with the intensity of seven to nine points. The inhabitants of the rest of Russia can not be afraid of the elements.

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