Experts have told that is necessary for the stabilization of the ruble

© RIA Novosti / Vladimir Traveloperator photosangelina bills in Russia. Archival photoExperts have told that is necessary for the stabilization of the ruble© RIA Novosti / Vladimir Traveloperator the image Bank

The preservation of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and moderately tough rhetoric stabilizes the ruble, the rate increase will add to the volatility in the currency market, the ruble will jump up, then go down, consider interviewed by RIA Novosti experts.

And the Bank of Russia today, most likely, will do so — will keep the key rate at the same level of 7.25% per annum, but will toughen rhetoric, according to most market experts.

Stability is more useful

Despite the increase in market volatility, the increase of yield of OFZ and the weakening of the ruble in recent weeks, there is no need to tighten monetary policy, says Director of the macroeconomics of the company «Alfa-Capital» Vladimir Bragin.

Panic on the trading floors subsided, three days is the strengthening of the ruble, the situation with ruble debt has stabilized, the market finds a balance, and the regulator should not take any additional effort, says the head of the dealing center of Metallinvestbank Sergey Romanchuk.

Actual rates in the market themselves have grown in recent years – without the participation of the Central Bank – and that’s OK, says the head of the center of the development strategies of Gazprombank Yegor Susin. Just in previous months, the market is too optimistic about the prospects of a rate cut, and its a bit «wild», now he returns to the zone of equilibrium, and the Bank does not require additional actions, says the expert.

Therefore, the best option for the ruble, which will support and provide the potential for growth is the immutability of the key rate and moderately tough rhetoric in line with the increased inflation expectations, summed up Cousin.

There is no reason to raise rates, also believes the asset Manager of the company «Region Esset Management» Alexey Skaballanovich. BFL moved to growth, the ruble also strengthened, inflation last week showed zero dynamics, he argues.

The most likely scenario — keep rates at current levels will push the pair «USD / RUB» a little up — in district 69, estimates senior analyst «Alpari» the novel Tkachuk.

A great influence on the ruble continue to have external factors, so it is unlikely that the Central Bank’s decision will have a significant effect, especially if the rate is changed as expected by the market, says the chief economist of the Russian direct investment FUND Dmitry Polevoy.

The rate increase is not always good for the ruble

The aggressive behavior is unlikely and less feasible, experts believe.

Yes, the decision to play in favor of the ruble, pointing to the exceptional commitment of the Central Bank main objective is to keep inflation around 4%, according to Field.

So, the rate increase of 0.25 percentage points in the short term can push a few «dollar-ruble» down in district 68, says Tkachuk. And the main analyst of the company «BCS Premier» Anton Pokatovich believes that the ruble might continue gradually strengthening even to the 67 levels against the dollar.

However, the higher rouble interest rates can be offset by the increased outflow of non-residents from BFL, adds Pokatovich. The rate increase of 0.25 percentage points would give rise to unnecessary expectations of future growth rates and, accordingly, will exert pressure on the quotes of rouble debt, also said Susin.

The rate increase will cause unnecessary volatility regulator — initially, the ruble will go up, then down, as aktiviziruyutsya selling OFZs, suggests Romanchuk.

The increase in the key rate in the current environment may generally lead to the opposite effect: the rising expectations of tightening monetary policy and, as a consequence, growth of yield in the bond market, increased volatility, including in the foreign exchange market, concluded Bragin.

The risk further increase in rates immediately by 50 basis points — it may even trigger the growth of fears of investors: market participants may judge that the regulator is preparing for a new round of instability in the short term, says Pokatovich. The bond market will once again be in the area of decline, the yield of OFZ can aspire to levels of 9.5% and above, investors will flee from them, and the ruble will go down again, he concluded.

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