An economist from the United States on the anniversary of the global crisis did not rule out its recurrence

© RIA Novosti / Gina Operate in fotoreceptorilor pointer on wall street in new York. Archival photoAn economist from the United States on the anniversary of the global crisis did not rule out its recurrence© RIA Novosti / Gina Operate the image Bank

The world economy weathered the financial crisis of 2008, which on 15 September marks 10 years, it could be repeated due to bloated sovereign and corporate debt, loss of investor confidence, as well as companies new wave that unknown principles of a bear market, said to RIA Novosti, the leading economist of the analytical Agency Smith’s Research & Gradings Scott MacDonald.

In the night of Monday 15 September 2008, Lehman Brothers Bank went to court with a bankruptcy petition and request protection from creditors. The bankruptcy of the fourth largest U.S. investment Bank Lehman Brothers was the starting point of the global financial crisis that subsequently developed into a global recession. Its origin is usually attributed to several factors: General cyclical economic development and the crisis in the US mortgage market in 2007.

MacDonald is confident that the crisis could repeat itself. «Sad but true — there will always be another crisis. We may not see the recurrence of a series of bankruptcy of mortgage banks and what followed it. However, we have accumulated a large amount of public debt, sovereign debt is growing in both the USA and UK, Japan and Italy, and the process does not stop – the growth of a critical mass of debt load continues,» he says.

«In addition, corporations in emerging markets have accumulated large debts, and when rates rise, they fall under even more pressure. A key factor for market growth is confidence of investors. Right now that trust is based on the fact that the American economy is growing fast that the bargain will be concluded, investors will continue to Finance the us budget deficit,» adds MacDonald.

But, according to him, this trust is easy to shatter, if «trade war gets out of control, policy tightening in the fed raising interest rates will complicate access to funding, in this case created a serious threat to a new crisis similar to 2008.»

«The next crisis may be different, it is likely to be associated with new technologies and non-Bank financial institutions, many of which are managed by the brash and bold young managers who were never participants in the present bear market (a market condition in which falling prices of securities, and widespread pessimism becomes self-sustaining – ed.)», he concluded.