Bets: what will happen to the ruble after Central Bank cuts

© Depositphotos / valphotoРоссийские rubles and U.S. dollarsBets: what will happen to the ruble after Central Bank cuts© Depositphotos / valphoto

MOSCOW, 15 sen — news, Natalia Dembinski. The Bank of Russia 14 September, raised its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points — up to seven and a half percent per annum. This was the first increase in nearly four years, from December 2014 the key rate gradually decreased, marking the shift to a moderately easy monetary policy. The decision of the Central Bank surprised the majority of analysts: many thought that the rate will remain at the same level. How to react to the ruble on the actions of the regulator and whether to wait for surprises from the fall of the Russian currency — in the material RIA Novosti.

In December 2014, in the midst of the crisis, the Central Bank raised the key rate to 17% per annum.

The regulator went on it to slow down inflation and devaluation. As the economy has recovered from shocks, key rate decreased. This year, the Central Bank reduced twice, in February and March, both times by 0.25 percentage points. The experts believed that the regulator will take a break, but the predictions did not materialize.

Changed the rhetoric of the Central Bank, becoming more stringent, the regulator admitted the possibility and further enhance. In particular, if you need assistance to Russian banks in case of sanctions by Western countries.

At the same time strongly increased inflationary expectations. In the September release of the Bank of Russia said: «the Balance of risks is even more shifted towards proinflationary risks. The main risks are associated with high uncertainty in the external environment and their impact on financial markets».

The Central Bank believe that inflation can accelerate to five or five and a half percent, and it is a clear threat to the long-term plans to reduce the cost of credit in the country, said Andrei Kochetkov, senior analyst «Discovery broker».

Impact on the ruble

Expected with a 99% probability of a September hike in the US, according to analysts, will have little effect on the dynamics of the dollar against the ruble is already mostly embedded in the current exchange rate.© Fotolia / sakkmesterkeБизнесвумен builds a tower of coinsBets: what will happen to the ruble after Central Bank cuts© Fotolia / sakkmesterkeБизнесвумен builds a tower of coins

But the decision by the Russian Central Bank to support the ruble.

«Against the background of high oil prices and the lack of geo-economic stresses by the summer of 2019 we will see the dollar for 62 rubles, and the Euro is at 70-71 ruble», — says Alexander Razuvaev, Director of analytical Department of «Alpari».

However, the optimism of the experts is quite discreet — for the ruble is now in first place of the sanctions rhetoric, and the reasons for the weakening of the Russian currency fall will still be enough. Over the ruble is still hanging the threat of the introduction in September-October of sanctions against Russian public debt, in particular, the ban already issued Federal loan bonds, the so-called hard scenario.

Perhaps all limited to rhetoric, but we cannot rule it out. «In this case, the ruble could fall to around 80-82 per dollar», — told RIA Novosti economist Sergei hestanov.

On the other hand, from the effects of «hard» scenario, the rouble protect oil expensive $ 70 per barrel, and substantial international reserves of Russia, covering virtually the entire foreign debt.