ACRE assessed the dynamics of world oil prices in 2019

© RIA Novosti / Maxim to Bogodeeva in photobacteria oil. Archival photoACRE assessed the dynamics of world oil prices in 2019© RIA Novosti / Maxim to Bogodeeva the image Bank

High world oil prices may persist until the middle of 2019, next will be significantly reduced while maintaining the number of trends, said in a macroeconomic forecast of the ACRE.

«Joint mixed action three events will probably lead to the preservation of the world prices at an elevated level until mid-2019 and their significant reduction by 15% or more in the second half of the year», — stated in the document, which is available to RIA Novosti.

The first trend is that the currently observed surge in prices to levels above $ 75 per barrel mark Brent is largely associated with the threat of imposition of U.S. sanctions, including restrictions on oil exports from Iran, the Agency said. By November 2018, he could fall by 0.5–1 million barrels a day, from the beginning of 2018, exports have already fallen by at least 0.5 million barrels per day relative to potential.

In addition, in 2019 the main risks of the oil market will focus on the supply side. «At the beginning of the year, it is clear whether the will replace the old arrangements under the agreement, OPEC+ on the restriction of the production of the new mechanism, how it will be if, under the new mechanism, subject to the limit on extraction at current levels of oil prices», — the document says.

Another direction that will affect the price of oil, is that the third and fourth quarter of 2019 in the United States planned to enter a significant amount of pipeline capacity, which will increase the amount of oil that can be delivered from the mining areas.

The President of the United States Donald trump announced in may that Washington comes from the agreement on the nuclear program with Iran. Trump also announced the restoration of all sanctions against Iran including secondary, that is, against other countries doing business with Iran. Once again, the U.S. has enacted on August 7 some of the sanctions against Iran. The more significant sanctions that would cover oil exports, is expected to be 4 November.

ACRE assessed the dynamics of world oil prices in 2019© Infographicsrussia forces in the world oil market