ACRES worsened the GDP growth forecast for Russia to 2019

© RIA Novosti / Vladimir Traveloperator in photobacteria banknotes and coins of Russia. Archival photoACRES worsened the GDP growth forecast for Russia to 2019© RIA Novosti / Vladimir Traveloperator the image Bank

ACRES in the new macroeconomic forecast worsened its estimate of growth of Russia’s GDP in 2019 to 1.4% from 1.5% in April, reflecting the negative impact of the trade war, the United States and China, as well as the likelihood of the introduction of new U.S. sanctions.

«We have revised their expectations regarding the possibility of imposing new sanctions against Russia, assessing the probability of occurrence of the event as higher, as well as predicted increases in negative impact of protectionist measures on the US economy and China,» — noted in the document, which is available to RIA Novosti.

In the April macroeconomic forecast analysts had expected growth of GDP in 2019-2021 years at 1.5%. Now in 2019 and in 2021 the growth forecast is 1.4%, in 2020 is 1.5%. For 2022, the forecast was reduced from 1.7% to 1.4%. The forecast for 2018 remains unchanged at growth of 1.6%.

While ACRA was first published by the alternative baseline scenario for the increased probability of negative shocks to the Russian economy: the slowing of the us economy, over-indebtedness of the Chinese economy, trade wars, sanctions, the expansion of pipeline capacity in the United States and the potential pressure on oil prices in the end of 2019.

In an alternative scenario, GDP growth in 2018 will reach 1.6% in 2019 and 0.7% in 2020 and 0.8%. This scenario assumes a drop in demand for exports from Russia by more than 1% due to trade wars and the introduction of new sanctions against Russia in November, the supply shocks that reduce prices on commodity markets.

Alternative scenario with financial stress suggests the same growth of the economy in 2018, in 2019, the decline in the amount of up to 2.5%, in 2020 — an increase of 0.3%. In this scenario, the shocks are added alternative endogenous recession in the US, the debt crisis in China, budget crises