In ACRE assessed the impact of possible U.S. sanctions on Russia’s state debt

© RIA Novosti / Vladimir Astapkovich in fotomancer of the Russian Federation on the coin. Archival photoIn ACRE assessed the impact of possible U.S. sanctions on Russia’s state debt© RIA Novosti / Vladimir Astapkovich the image Bank

The cost of ruble borrowings for the Russian Federation will increase by 0.5-0.7 percentage points, in the case of sanctions on purchase of U.S. new issues of Russian debt securities, stated in the updated macroeconomic forecast of the ACRE for the Russian Federation.

«Introduction in November of the current year authorized the purchase by US residents of new issues of Russian debt securities, we estimate how probable an event. Our assessment of the long-term effect of the introduction of restrictions on the purchase of Russian debt — shift up by 0.5–0.7 percentage points of the cost of ruble borrowings of the state by reducing the base of potential investors relative to the case without restrictions,» — says the document, which is available to RIA Novosti.

According to the Agency, this measure does not affect the interests of Americans who invest in Russian bonds if they hold previously issued debt of the Russian Federation prior to its maturity. «Moreover, from the beginning to the end of summer about a quarter of the holders of, the United States sold their bonds. By November they will probably remain even less», — analysts say.

The experts believe the less probable event of another alleged sanctions measure, the U.S. ban on payments in US dollars to Russian banks. This development Agency is not laying in the base scenario of its macroeconomic forecast. In the case of the adoption of the measure will lead to a decrease in liquidity assets of banks of the Russian Federation located in the USA and will create problems for the execution of matching to the liabilities to the holders of the United States.

«In the worst case, if this measure is complemented by a «secondary» sanctions for companies not from the US, liquidity may fall and the assets of Russian banks in other countries. In this case, it is highly likely the creation of the Bank of Russia the special tool to support foreign currency liquidity for government banks, currency source that can be international reserves,» noted ACRA.

Possible in this case in one form or another, competition of non-state Russian and foreign banks for niche settlement of transactions of residents with nonresidents.

In ACRE assessed the impact of possible U.S. sanctions on Russia’s state debt© Infografiken sanctions against Russia and retaliatory measures