© RIA Novosti / Ilya Petliurite in fotoreceptor oil company LUKOIL in the oil Bush near the town of Kogalym© RIA Novosti / Ilya Petliurite the image Bank
Western experts predict that oil in Russia will expire in 20-25 years. Russian officials and scientists say about 50-60 years. What is happening with the mining and oil reserves in the country — in the material RIA Novosti.
In anticipation of us sanctions against Iran’s oil industry, entering into force on 5 November, in the expert community turned heated debate about who will replace the drop-down delivery of «black gold» to world markets and which countries will play a key role in the global oil industry in the coming years.
In the heat of the dispute sounded quite non-trivial statement. In particular, the Saudi crown Prince and Deputy Prime Minister Muhammad bin Salman predicted a sharp decline in Russia’s role in the withdrawal from the oil market in the next two decades.
«After 19 years Russia will lose badly in production, if not the entire ten million barrels of oil per day,» said the Prince in an interview with Bloomberg.
This caused mixed reactions among Russian oilmen. Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia is a world leader in the oil industry and this will not change in the long term.
«Our strategy provides for the continuation of oil production at current levels and even with a slight increase,» — said the head of Ministry.
The head of «Rosneft» Igor Sechin also denied the predictions of a Saudi Prince.
«According to our estimates, in the foreseeable future on the oil market will lead to three major players: Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States — countries with very different organization of industry, the different resource base and different drivers of growth,» — said Sechin.
But the head of «LUKOIL» Vagit Alekperov has agreed to the Saudis: according to him, oil production in Russia is at its peak and after a couple of years will decline. However, experts reminded that this company has always distinguished the overly pessimistic forecasts.
Vice-President of LUKOIL Leonid Fedun in early 2008 said that the indicators of Russian oil output peaked, and in the future — only reduction. However, after that production volumes increased by ten percent to 540 million tons in 2017. In 2012 Vagit Alekperov again predicted the decline, and again his prediction did not come true.
It seems that this time, pessimistic assessments are exaggerated. Recent data suggests that Russia maintains a strong position in the oil market.
As reported by the Central dispatch control of fuel and energy complex (CDU TEK), extraction of black gold in October 2018 rose 4.4% year — to 48.26 million tons. But what’s the real margin?
The Ministry of environment soothes
According to estimates of the Ministry of natural resources, presented in the recently published report «the status and use of mineral resources of the Russian Federation in the period of 2016-2017 years», the total recoverable oil reserves in the country for 2016 rose by 18.8 million tons, and in 2017 has increased by 146,6 million tons.
As noted in the document, according to experts of the international Society of petroleum engineers, the Russian proved reserves of liquid hydrocarbons are estimated in the amount of 80 billion barrels, or about 11 billion tons, accounting for about five percent of global reserves.
According to this indicator, Russia ranks eighth in the world.
Thus of the seven oil and gas basins of the country is significantly developed only three: North-Caucasus-Mangyshlak (86.2 per cent), Okhotsk (79,2%) and Volga-Ural (69,6%). The West Siberian — slightly more than half, and another three (including shelf) — less than a third.
Russia’s largest oil supplier over the past decade remains the Priobskoye field (seven percent of oil production in the country), the second position was occupied by Samotlor, the third place Vankor field in the Krasnoyarsk region.
Despite the long-term leadership of the West Siberian fields, for more than fifty years the history of the development of this region, its resources have been explored only by 44%. Riches in Eastern Siberia — only 23%, and the resources of the continental shelf — less than five percent. This creates the prospect of new oil fields.
Who seeks will always find
Just last year, Russian geologists discovered 43 new oil fields. The largest is the Central Olginskaya, with recoverable reserves of 81 million tonnes, discovered by Rosneft on the shelf of the Laptev sea.
In total, according to experts, the Arctic depths contain about ten billion tons of oil (about 83 billion barrels). That is only due to the Northern shelf of Russia is able to increase oil reserves more than doubled.
Expert assessment on how many years of oil is enough, depend on the optimism of analysts about the prospects for new discoveries and the development of extractive technology.
Skeptical foreign experts say about 20-25 years.
Russian scientists are more optimistic. As stated by RIA Novosti rector of the Russian state geological prospecting University named after Sergo Ordzhonikidze Vadim Kasyanov, now the country is provided by active reserves (that is those for production where there are no technical obstacles) oil for 33 years.
Given the prospects of new discoveries, the Ministry of environment and the Ministry of energy say about the timing of 55-60 years as the minimum.