Iran under pressure: what will happen to the price of oil after U.S. sanctions

© AP Photo / Hasan JamaliНефтяная towerIran under pressure: what will happen to the price of oil after U.S. sanctions© AP Photo / Hasan Jamali

MOSCOW, February 7 — RIA Novosti, Natalia Dembinski. Came into force on 5 November sanctions against Iran, oil prices responded to lower. Trump called the restriction «the most stringent» of all that ever entered Washington against Tehran. But the full embargo can not speak: some countries will still be able to buy black gold from the Islamic Republic. Does the market supply shortage and whether to wait now a hundred dollars per barrel, as predicted global investment banks — in the material RIA Novosti.

«Easing» In Washington

US sanctions against Iran in force until the signing of the Joint comprehensive plan of action on Iran’s nuclear program in 2015, and now they have resumed. Restrictions will affect the oil industry, banking, shipbuilding and Maritime transport of Iran. Countries-violators, who will remain with the Islamic Republic of commercial relations, are subject to the applicable secondary measures. The exceptions are a few countries — Greece, India, Italy, China (including Taiwan), Turkey, South Korea and Japan. They will be able to import hydrocarbons from Iran and in the face of new restrictions.

Such relief of Washington has led to the fact that the market sanctions reacted unexpectedly in the course of trading oil quotes declined by the evening, Brent fell to $ 71 per barrel.

The last few months prices increased on expectations of sanctions. Nervous market participants added the recent statement of Saudi Arabia that Riyadh will not be able to offset future market losses.

«Sanctions against Iran and Venezuela potentially remove about three million barrels of oil daily turnover. But the United States, Saudi Arabia and Russia since the beginning of the year increased its production more than 2.5 million barrels per day. Accordingly, the market remains balanced, and any significant deficit will not,» said Andrei Kochetkov, senior analyst of the company «Opening broker».

«It is possible that companies from countries not on the sanctions list, will act as intermediaries for the sale of Iranian oil. That is, the oil is Iranian, but the exporter is not Iranian company, and, for example, Chinese,» — says Natalia Milchakova, Director of the analytical Department of «Alpari».

Similar predictions were previously announced in Goldman Sachs as head of one of the world’s largest oil companies, French Total, indicated that the oil market «has entered a new world», where the key factor becomes geopolitics.

However, despite the abundance of relatively favourable to growth factors, the analysts recommend sticking to more conservative forecasts.

«In the near future the oil can make a little hop up to 75-77 dollars per barrel, if anything in terms of sanctions will not change in the direction of easing,» — said Vernikov.

According to Kochetkova, the price of a barrel will be fixed in the range of $ 70-80, reflecting a relative balance of supply and demand. But the market should still be ready for surprises. CC0 / redhawkgroup / oilIran under pressure: what will happen to the price of oil after U.S. sanctionsCC0 / redhawkgroup / oil Production
The threat remains

«Off of game Iran and Venezuela stripped the world industry of oil production spare capacity. In fact, any force majeure event in the core countries would immediately lead to real, not imaginary shortage of supply,» he adds.

Therefore, a scenario in which oil could eventually crawl to one hundred a barrel, is quite likely. The economy, however, such peaks are completely useless — the important level where prices will be fixed for a long time. Economically sound experts call the range of $ 65-80 per barrel. And it is most useful for the Russian economy as it stimulates to develop non-primary sector without repeating the mistakes of the past. © Infographical against IranIran under pressure: what will happen to the price of oil after U.S. sanctions© Infographical against Iran