Nabiullina called the main risks for the Central Banks of Russia and Kazakhstan

© RIA Novosti / Alexei Danceparty in fotoreceptor the Central Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina. Archival photoNabiullina called the main risks for the Central Banks of Russia and Kazakhstan© RIA Novosti / Alexei Danceparty the image Bank

Fluctuations in oil prices and capital outflows from emerging markets are now major challenges for the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan, said the Chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina, speaking at the VIII Congress of financiers of Kazakhstan.

«At the moment, I would have said two such risk, two sources of volatility. The first is the fluctuation of commodity prices. To Russia and Kazakhstan is an important factor of influence on the economy and the financial system. The second external source of volatility is changes in capital flows to our markets,» — said Nabiullina.

According to her, although the floating exchange rate makes it impossible to adapt to such shocks, price fluctuations for raw materials — oil and gas, can be complicated by the strong volatility of inflation and hence higher interest rates. Changes in capital flows in emerging markets, in turn, are associated with the increase in interest rates of Central Banks in the developed countries as well as geopolitical factors and foreign trade restrictions, «the amount of which the world recently has increased dramatically,» said Nabiullina.

According to preliminary data of the Bank of Russia, net capital outflow from Russia in January-October increased three times compared to the same period last year and amounted to 42.2 billion dollars.

The Central Bank is considering three scenarios for a medium-term forecast of economic development. The baseline scenario and a scenario with a constant oil prices differ in terms of external conditions for the Russian economy, as they are on the medium-term horizon linked to the uncertainty is highest. In risk scenario inherent deterioration in the external environment. In the baseline scenario, the oil price will decrease from the current level up to 63 USD in 2019 and $ 55 per barrel in 2020-2021 years. In the second scenario, the economy is considered when the price per barrel of oil above 75 dollars, and under the risky scenario, the CBR sees the price drop to $ 35 per barrel.

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