Who is the boss. Washington Russia lost the battle for the «energy of the future»

© RIA Novosti / Nord Stream 2Перейти in vocabanswers pipes on Board the vessel Solitaire, for the subsequent laying of the gas pipeline Nord stream-2 in the Gulf of FinlandWho is the boss. Washington Russia lost the battle for the «energy of the future»© RIA Novosti / Nord Stream 2Перейти the image Bank

Experts from the International energy Agency (IEA) report on prospects for the global energy pointed out the leading role of Russia in this sphere until at least 2040. The key region by which you will be able to increase exports of natural gas by 60% — South-East Asia with its emerging economies. What benefit Moscow would be recovered from energy supplies in the coming decades, and who remain out of work — in the material RIA Novosti.

Safe and secure

IEA experts note that in the long term, Russia is unlikely to be serious competitors in the gas market. Even despite the fact that the demand for this fuel in the mid-2020 will drop and by 2040 will reach 408 billion cubic meters (16.4% less than 2017), by that time, European imports will increase to 86%. This is due to the fact that the EU gradually reduce the amount produced domestically.

Although fully master this volume Russia will not be able because of the politically motivated aspirations of the EU to diversify its fuel supply, a key role in the supply of gas to Europe is not questioned by any of the experts of the IEA.

«Russia will remain the largest gas supplier in the region and one of the cheapest, but the effect of this should subside in a much more integrated European gas market, where buyers will have access to different sources of gas,» the IEA predicts.

Not done in the report and without controversy. One of them relates to security of supply, rather, implied by this diversification. Intelligence is overrated its possible volume, because the only alternative to Russian gas for the EU — us LNG, which, contrary to the hopes of Washington, and did not become the locomotive of the European energy sector.

This year «Gazprom» plans to once again break the record for the supply of pipeline gas to foreign countries by the export of 205 billion cubic meters of fuel. This is ten times more than all of the gas produced by Ukraine in 2017.

To achieve these results was largely due to European consumers. As of mid-year delivery in Germany rose by 12.3%, Austria — by 48.3%, Netherlands — 53.8%, France 11.8%, in Croatia — by 40.1%, in Denmark — 11.9%, Poland 6.6%.

According to analysts, the IEA, the main consumers of energy in the coming years will make developing economies of Asia. In the first place is China, whose appetite gas in 2030 will increase to 480 billion cubic meters. The only thing that can stop this market develop steadily, — the political provocations of individual players.

«We are confident that over 70% of global investment in energy will depend on the will of States, this means that the industry is completely determined by political decisions — said the Executive Director of the IEA, Fatih Birol. — Achieving our shared goals requires developing the right policies and related initiatives».

Here Moscow is also in a better position than Washington. Because of the trade war waged by Donald trump, Beijing has refused shipments of oil and LNG from the United States. Vladimir Putin and XI Jinping have agreed on the construction of a new pipeline «Power of Siberia — 2» on the Western route «Altai». It is expected that every year it will transport about 30 billion cubic meters of gas.

© RIA Novosti / Michael Clientgenerated in Photobacterium of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and Chinese President XI Jinping at a press conference following the meeting on the sidelines of the IV Eastern economic forum Who is the boss. Washington Russia lost the battle for the «energy of the future»© RIA Novosti / Michael Clientgenerated in Photobacterium of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and Chinese President XI Jinping at a press conference following the meeting on the sidelines of the IV Eastern economic forum

Practically, this means that a large-scale project of construction of new gas liquefaction plants in the US as the shale oil risks result in large losses for the American economy. While in the world there is a shortage of gas tankers and their cost of freight is increasing, and the lack of demand for American LNG in China makes the start-up of new capacities is meaningless.

According to analysts of the consulting company Edison, with the cessation of supplies of American LNG to China almost lost the economic prospects of the LNG plant Magnolia LNG with a capacity of eight million tons per year under construction in Louisiana. The establishment of other production capacities are also questionable.

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