The Central Bank told about the three scenarios of the Russian economy

© RIA Novosti / Ilya Petliurite in fotoreceptor of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina at the plenary meeting of the State Duma of the Russian Federation. 21 November 2018The Central Bank told about the three scenarios of the Russian economy© RIA Novosti / Ilya Petliurite the image Bank

The Central Bank has prepared three scenarios of Russian economy development for the next three years.

In the baseline scenario, the average price of oil will drop to 63 USD in 2019 and $ 55 per barrel in 2020-2021 years.

In the second variant envisaged the price of oil above 75 dollars, and under the risky scenario, the Central Bank has laid down a price reduction to $ 35.

The baseline scenario and the option with unchanged oil prices differ in terms of external conditions for the Russian economy, as they are on the medium-term horizon linked to the uncertainty is highest.

In risk scenario inherent deterioration in the external environment. In early November, the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina noted that he does not consider the high probability of conditions risk scenario in the years 2019-2021.

All three variants of development of economy mean maintaining the annual inflation rate close to four percent. While slight fluctuations.

The Reaction Of The State Duma

In the state Duma took note prepared by the economists the directions for the single state monetary policy.

The head of the Committee on financial markets Anatoly Aksakov said that the Central Bank says that 4% inflation is a standing figure.

According to him, this will allow businesses to more efficiently carry out their policies and plan long-term investment.

Head of the Committee on budget and taxes Andrey Makarov said that the Central Bank has increased the confidence in their actions. He stressed that the main task of the Bank of Russia — maintenance of low inflation. However, he objected to entrust the Central Bank responsible for economic growth.

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