On the verge of collapse: trump threatens to cancel talks with Putin at G20

© RIA Novosti / Alexei Nikolskiye in Photobacterium of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and the President of the United States Donald trump (left) at a joint press conference following the meeting in Helsinki. Archival photoOn the verge of collapse: trump threatens to cancel talks with Putin at G20© RIA Novosti / Alexei Nikolskiye the image Bank

The white house on Tuesday afternoon Washington time announced that the President of the United States Donald trump is planning to meet with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Argentina on the sidelines of the summit of «Big twenty», which will be held from 30 November to 1 December. However, just a couple of hours later, trump said in an interview with the Washington Post that the talks may be cancelled because of the incident between Russia and Ukraine in the Kerch Strait.

RIA Novosti interviewed American experts note that the situation is complicated by the fact that the trump does not have the support of the U.S. Congress in Russia, and with the transition of control of the house of representatives to the Democrats room to maneuver is shrinking even more. Political analysts also warn about a possible repetition of the scenario after the summit in Helsinki, when Congress enacted new anti-Russian sanctions.

In the air hung and the question of U.S. withdrawal from the Treaty on the elimination of intermediate and shorter-range missiles (INF Treaty). The Russian authorities still have not received a clear response from their colleagues regarding their future actions. Official notification of withdrawal from the Treaty, Washington is also not provided.

«I don’t like the aggression,»

If in early November, Moscow and Washington had to cancel the meeting of leaders in Paris at the persistent request of the French government, this time to hinder the negotiations may incident between the Russian and the Ukrainian military in Kerch Strait.

«Maybe I’m not going to hold a meeting… I don’t like this aggression. I don’t want aggression,» said trump. He said that he expects a full report on this issue from his team from the national security Council in the near future.

Director of the Center for political-military analysis at Hudson Institute (USA) Richard Weitz believes that the probability of cancellation of the meeting due to the situation around Ukraine big.

«I think this is a real threat, since the Kerch incident outraged the Congress and allies (USA). Other administration officials also expressed concern,» said Weitz RIA Novosti.

During an emergency UN security Council meeting on Ukraine U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley noted that the detention of the Russian Federation of the Ukrainian courts will affect relations of Russia and the USA. The adviser to the President for homeland security John Bolton at the briefing in the White house did not answer the question of whether trump to discuss this topic at the meeting with Putin.

According to Professor of political science at the University Hamlin David Schultz, breakthroughs from the bilateral meeting, if it takes place, should not wait. «The latest incident between the ships of Russia and Ukraine complicate this meeting even more», — said the Agency interlocutor.

The continuation of the Helsinki summit

Before trump announced the possible cancellation of his meeting with the Russian leader, Bolton managed to answer a number of questions of journalists about the forthcoming talks. In particular, he said that the meeting, trump and Putin will be a «continuation of the talks in Helsinki». Hand, he said, plan to discuss «the full range of themes» — from arms control to regional issues, including the middle East.

Experts say that one of the most pressing issues on the bilateral agenda is the US intention to withdraw from the Treaty on the elimination of intermediate-range and shorter-range.

«The question that has the greatest pressure, it’s something to do with the INF Treaty. Russia and the United States should continue the journey or to its renewal, or revival of a Treaty or end it without provoking a major crisis between the West and the East,» — said Weitz.

Schultz not rule out that trump can change his / her decision on the withdrawal from the INF Treaty. «Trump may declare that he lays out from the INF Treaty in anticipation of revaluation of the Russian actions, possibly, in Syria, or the desire to start negotiations on other issues,» — said the Agency interlocutor.

He also noted that «most of American foreign-policy establishment prefers to retain the contract,» the trump «is not always listens to his advisers».

The Syrian issue also, surely, could become one of the Central in the negotiations. The special representative of the Secretary of state on Syria, James Jeffrey said in an interview with RIA Novosti and «Kommersant» newspaper that «President trump pays the Syrian issue is a very big attention», and the experience of previous meetings in Syria plays a «critical role» in talks between the two leaders.

The threat of new sanctions

Once past the July summit in Helsinki, the press Secretary of the White house Sarah Sanders stated that the President of the United States Donald trump invites his counterpart Vladimir Putin to visit Washington this fall. This proposal was never implemented, and the agreements that the two leaders only caused outrage in the U.S. Congress that eventually led to new anti-Russian sanctions.

Expert, Institute of strategic and international studies Jeffrey Mankoff does not exclude that such scenario may happen again if the leaders will meet in Argentina. According to him, the Congress has «a pretty strong desire» to impose new sanctions against Russia, «and it will become even stronger as soon as in January, the control of the house of representatives goes to the Democrats».

Earlier, Russian foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow wants to start a «normal, professional, not politized» work with the United States, but Washington is not very eager to do it.

«I think the President trump, coming to power, sincerely wanted to improve relations with Russia. But domestic and international obstacles became so great that he has refused this,» said Weitz.

According to the expert, «President Putin understands this and is not expected to improve bilateral relations in the near future.»

«So while the two presidents try to keep control of bilateral conflicts, while they deal with other priority issues,» — said the Agency interlocutor.

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